Harnessing Agricultural Residues in a Circular Economy: A Regional Input–Output Scenario Analysis for Italy

This study presents a methodological framework to evaluate the regional economic and environmental impacts of integrating agricultural residues into Italy's circular economy. While Italy possesses significant, underutilized biomass from agricultural activities, its potential to foster sustainable development remains largely untapped. Our research addresses this gap by combining detailed inventories of agricultural residue availability (e.g., straw, prunings, and processing by-products) with a regional input-output (I-O) modeling approach. The core of the methodology involves disaggregating I-O tables to incorporate new or expanded bio-based industries (e.g., bioenergy, bioproducts) and estimating their technical coefficients. Through scenario-based analysis, we model the potential effects of different residue valorization strategies, considering varying rates of technology adoption and policy support. The framework is designed to quantify impacts on key economic indicators—such as regional output, value-added, and employment—via multiplier effects, as well as on environmental parameters like CO₂ emissions. While definitive results are in progress, this work provides a robust, evidence-based tool for policymakers and stakeholders to assess how harnessing agricultural residues can support climate change mitigation, enhance rural diversification, and advance Italy's transition toward a resource-efficient bioeconomy.