Mammographic density to predict response to neoadjuvant systemic breast cancer therapy

Background Mammographic density (MD) is a risk factor for breast cancer (BC) development, and recurrence. However, its predictive value has been less studied. Herein, we challenged MD as a biomarker associated with response in patients treated with neoadjuvant therapy (NAT). Methods Data on all NAT treated BC patients prospectively collected in the registry of Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori, Milano, Italy (2009-2019) were identified. Diagnostic mammograms were used to evaluate and score MD as categorized by the Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS), which identifies 4 levels of MD in keeping with relative increase of fibro-glandular over fat tissue. Each case was classified according to the following categories a (MD < 25%), b (26-50%), c (51-75%), and d (> 75%). The association between MD and pathological complete response (pCR), i.e., absence of BC cells in surgical specimens, was analyzed in multivariable setting used logistic regression models with adjustment for clinical and pathological variables. Results A total of 442 patients were analyzed, 120 of which (27.1%) attained a pCR. BI-RADS categories a, b, c, and d accounted for 10.0%, 37.8%, 37.1% and 15.2% of cases. Corresponding pCR were 20.5%, 26.9%, 30.5%, 23.9%, respectively. At multivariable analysis, when compared to cases classified as BI-RADS a, those with denser breast showed an increased likelihood of pCR with odds ratio (OR) of 1.70, 2.79, and 1.47 for b, c and d categories, respectively (p = 0.0996), independently of age, BMI [OR underweight versus (vs) normal = 3.76], clinical nodal and tumor status (OR T1/Tx vs T4 = 3.87), molecular subtype (HER2-positive vs luminal = 10.74; triple-negative vs luminal = 8.19). In subgroup analyses, the association of MD with pCR was remarkable in triple-negative (ORs of b, c and d versus a: 1.85, 2.49 and 1.55, respectively) and HER2-positive BC cases (ORs 2.70, 3.23, and 1.16). Conclusion Patients with dense breast are more likely to attain a pCR at net of other predictive factors. The potential of MD to assist decisions on BC management and as a stratification factor in neoadjuvant clinical trials should be considered.