There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the presence of asymptomatic, or however undetected, infective, and the substantially long time these spend being infective and not isolated. We discuss how a SIR-based prediction of the epidemic course based on early data but not taking into account the presence of a large set of asymptomatic infectives would give wrong estimate of very relevant quantities such as the need of hospital beds, the time to the epidemic peak, and the number of people which are left untouched by the first wave and thus in danger in case of a second epidemic wave. In the second part of the note, we apply our model to the COVID-19 epidemics in Northern Italy. We obtain a good agreement with epidemiological data; according to the best fit of epidemiological data in terms of this model, only 10% of infectives in Italy is symptomatic.
A simple SIR model with a large set of asymptomatic infectives / G. Gaeta. - In: MATHEMATICS IN ENGINEERING. - ISSN 2640-3501. - 3:2(2021), pp. 1-39.
A simple SIR model with a large set of asymptomatic infectives
G. Gaeta
2021
Abstract
There is increasing evidence that one of the most difficult problems in trying to control the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic is the presence of a large cohort of asymptomatic infectives. We develop a SIR-type model taking into account the presence of asymptomatic, or however undetected, infective, and the substantially long time these spend being infective and not isolated. We discuss how a SIR-based prediction of the epidemic course based on early data but not taking into account the presence of a large set of asymptomatic infectives would give wrong estimate of very relevant quantities such as the need of hospital beds, the time to the epidemic peak, and the number of people which are left untouched by the first wave and thus in danger in case of a second epidemic wave. In the second part of the note, we apply our model to the COVID-19 epidemics in Northern Italy. We obtain a good agreement with epidemiological data; according to the best fit of epidemiological data in terms of this model, only 10% of infectives in Italy is symptomatic.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
---|---|---|---|
covid_A_sir_fin_rev.pdf
accesso aperto
Tipologia:
Pre-print (manoscritto inviato all'editore)
Dimensione
274.67 kB
Formato
Adobe PDF
|
274.67 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizza/Apri |
mine-03-02-013.pdf
accesso aperto
Tipologia:
Publisher's version/PDF
Dimensione
511.44 kB
Formato
Adobe PDF
|
511.44 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizza/Apri |
Pubblicazioni consigliate
I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.