Development of an integrated methodology for the management and assessment of the impact of agricultural policies at a territorial level

In recent years, the European agriculture has been subject to increased pressure due to both radical dismantling of a long-standing support regime, and to the new EU environmental policies. In order to analyse the impact of these changes at a regional level, an integrated methodology, based on Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) techniques, and a Geographic Information System (GIS), is developed. As case study the methodology analyses the impact of the CAP, together with water and nitrogen policies, on the agricultural system of the Lombardy irrigated lowland (Northern Italy). Results show that the introduction of the single payment makes farmers’ more influenced by market trends. Environmental constraints seem to have a larger impact than changes in prices: irrigation constraints stimulate the land allocation to extensive crops, while nitrogen constraints are very sensitive to the number of livestock. The case study illustrate that the methodology proposed can provide a set of scenarios that closely account for the peculiarities of local agricultural systems within a target area. The resulting construction of a geo-referred database is also a useful tool to gather in-depth knowledge of the area.