Emerging Trends and Possible Futures of the Telecommunication Networks in Italy

This chapter explores the possible futures for the telecommunication ecosystem in Italy, by focusing on a medium- and long-term perspective through the application of Strategic Foresight techniques. Our goal is identifying the most promising new directions and policies for driving the ecosystem evolution towards the preferable scenario, by working on different dimensions: market/economic models, technical advancement, regulatory frameworks, and users’ expectations/perspectives. Regarding the first aspect, we analyze the emerging opportunities for companies in terms of enabling technologies and digital services that can be built on top of connectivity services, by also discussing the status of the network infrastructures in Italy. Then, the chapter examines the technical dimension, assessing the potential impact of technologies such as low-orbit satellites and aerial networks, the edge expansion, new materials and devices for reducing the carbon footprint of networks, artificial intelligence and programmability of networks, as well as the development of novel communication services based on immersive applications. Moreover, the research also analyzes the regulatory landscape, assessing the influence of policies on the evolution of telecommunication networks. It evaluates existing regulations and recommends reforms to stimulate innovation and greater industry participation. Finally, innovative requirements on the user side are presented. All these aspects are then projectedinto four strategic scenarios, that have been developed by identifying key forces that could impact development trajectories, categorizing them as “predetermined” (i.e., with a clear trend) or “variables” (i.e., subject to unpredictable outcomes). In particular, we considered the combinations of high-impact extreme outcomes along the identified axes (namely, a unified European role: yes/no; level of urbanization: high/low) in scenarios entitled United States of Europe, City-States 2.0, Distributed States of Europe, and Digital Feudalism, for imaging the impact on the future telecommunication ecosystem.