Farming on the edge: The 10-fold deficit in Lombardy’s agricultural land

Lombardy is Italy’s leading region in primary agricultural production, yet it faces a significant decline in agricultural soil, primarily due to urban expansion. This land consumption largely affects arable areas, as land is repurposed for low-density residential developments, roads, logistics, and commercial or industrial hubs. The reduction in agricultural land threatens regional food security and increases dependency on external markets. This study determines the long-term sustainability of this trend by estimating the actual quantity of agricultural land required to satisfy the food demand of the region’s citizens. The research employed a two-part georeferenced analysis. First, a cross-tabulation matrix quantified the land consumption over two decades. Second, the Planning Forecasts Map was analyzed, coupled with new road projects, to estimate future potential land consumption embedded in Land Use Plans (PGT). Finally, food consumption was converted into the required hectares of agricultural land per capita and compared to the current stock of agricultural land to quantify the deficit by municipality. The dramatic spatial deficit confirms that the current trajectory of land consumption is unsustainable, leaving Lombardy’s food security highly dependent on imports. While regional laws have reduced planned urbanization, the limitation of land take remains far from the goals. The results highlight the urgent need for effective compensatory measures and mitigation strategies that account for the true magnitude and spatial distribution of the agricultural land deficit, particularly in the most critical urban and peri-urban areas.