How do adverse family characteristics and shock events shape children’s educational outcomes in Vietnam? – Evidence from Young Lives surveys

This paper investigates how adverse family characteristics and shock events in early childhood affect children's educational outcomes in Vietnam. We analyse a longitudinal data from the Young Lives survey, following up 3000 Vietnamese children in two different cohorts (young cohort - from 6 months to 15 years old, and old cohort - from age 8–22) for a period of 15 years (2002 – 2016). By employing random effects regression model, our findings reveal that natural disasters—among the most frequent shocks experienced by Vietnamese households—significantly hinder educational progress, especially for older students, reducing math scores and lowering the likelihood of age-appropriate grade attainment. In contrast, agricultural shocks and most family-related adversities, including parental illness, death, or divorce, show limited influence across both cohorts. Additionally, while children with less-educated parents and in less wealthy households display less successful educational trajectories, wealth index do not significantly moderate the negative effect of shocks on children's educational outcomes. Some implications for educational and social policies in Vietnam and maybe relevant for other developing countries are discussed.