Fear of crime in context. A cross-national longitudinal analysis of perceived unsafety in Europe, 2002–2020

Fear of crime has significant consequences for individuals, communities and societies. While research has extensively explored individual and community-level predictors, national structural factors remain underexamined. This study investigates how macro-level determinants across socio-demographic, economic, political, welfare and crime domains influence fear of crime–defined as perceived unsafety when walking alone in one’s neighbourhood after dark. Using data from 10 waves of the European Social Survey (2002–2020) covering 29 countries, we employ multilevel hybrid models with random intercepts for individuals nested within country-years and fixed effects for countries and years. This approach captures within-country variation while accounting for time-invariant characteristics and period-specific effects. The results show that rising immigration and victimisation rates significantly increase perceived unsafety, while other macro-factors show no consistent effects. These findings challenge conventional assumptions about structural influences and highlight the need for policies addressing both objective crime risks and subjective perceptions of safety.