Tracking and Academic Prospects

This paper investigates the impact of secondary school tracking on students’ transitions to higher education (HE) in Italy. Using data from INVALSI and PISA surveys, we explore how track allocation – whether students attend academic, technical, or vocational schools – affects their academic outcomes and aspirations for higher education. There are significant disparities in transition rates between tracks, with students from vocational schools facing lower prospects of accessing higher education compared to their peers in academic tracks. These students not only demonstrate weaker skill growth over time but also lower aspirations for college, exacerbated by selective university admission policies based on standardized testing. The findings suggest that tracking reinforces social inequalities, with vocational students experiencing lower probabilities of entering tertiary education, especially under selective university admission policies. Revising vocational curricula, postponing track selection, or adjusting admission processes are policy measures that could improve equity in higher education access. Targeted interventions to support students in vocational tracks might also be needed to mitigate the long-term consequences of early academic tracking.