The practice of marine insurance allowed late Medieval merchants to evaluate various of factors of risk involved in the sea trade, either structural or contingent, as can be shown through a detailed inquiry mainly based on the Datini archives in Prato. Although businessmen did not develop a notion of probability in a strict “statistical” sense, they made use of various levels of “probabilistic reasoning”, depending on the degree of uncertainty that they had to face.
The Price for Risk-Taking: Marine Insurance and Probability Calculus in the Late Middle Ages / G.M. Ceccarelli. - In: JOURN@L ÉLECTRONIQUE D'HISTOIRE DES PROBABILITÉS ET DE LA STATISTIQUE. - ISSN 1773-0074. - 3:1(2007), pp. 1-26.
The Price for Risk-Taking: Marine Insurance and Probability Calculus in the Late Middle Ages
G.M. Ceccarelli
2007
Abstract
The practice of marine insurance allowed late Medieval merchants to evaluate various of factors of risk involved in the sea trade, either structural or contingent, as can be shown through a detailed inquiry mainly based on the Datini archives in Prato. Although businessmen did not develop a notion of probability in a strict “statistical” sense, they made use of various levels of “probabilistic reasoning”, depending on the degree of uncertainty that they had to face.
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