Uncovering mountain potential: territorial diversity in Italian wine farms profitability

Introduction Viticulture in mountainous areas is characterized by significant challenges, such as cultivating steeply sloped terrain requiring the use of agricultural terraces essential for leveling the ground, limited mechanization, constant soil maintenance to prevent erosion and landslides (Tarolli et al., 2023). Moreover, until recent times, mountainous areas were considered disadvantaged for grape cultivation due to environmental limitations such as late frosts, frequent storms, and steep slopes. However, in the current context of climate change, it is being explored whether mountains could represent an adaptation solution for viticulture. Indeed, predictions indicate an increase in thermal stress and drought during the vine growing season, negatively impacting grape and wine quality. Some of the main observed trends can be described as earlier phenology, increased sugar content, and higher alcohol content in wine, loss of aroma precursors in berries due to earlier ripening (van Leeuwen and Destrac-Irvine, 2017), and the expansion of areas suitable for wine production (Vigl et al., 2018). Several studies (Falcão et al., 2010), (Caffarra and Eccel, 2011) demonstrate how, due to increasing temperatures linked to global climate change, new opportunities arise for wine grape cultivation in previously unsuitable areas, especially in mountainous regions, where higher altitude and cooler temperatures lead to later phenology and longer duration of phenological events, resulting in phenomena such as delayed sugar accumulation in grapes. Another crucial aspect pertains to the potential role of viticulture in disadvantaged regions, particularly mountainous areas facing depopulation and abandonment of agricultural lands. The cultivation of grapes has the potential to stimulate socio-economic progress in these regions by promoting wine production and supporting related agricultural activities like wine tourism. It represents a valuable local agricultural asset ripe for destination investment. Such investment can take the form of dedicated wine tourism initiatives or be integrated with several typologies of rural tourism. (Tomay and Tuboly, 2023) Based on the literary evidence and the importance of mountain viticulture in specific regions, this study aims to assess the territorial potential of the Umbria region, located in central Italy, for establishing vineyards in hilly and mountainous areas, primarily focusing on the production of sparkling wines. The adaptability of individual municipalities is evaluated through a composite index that considers various socio-economic variables related to the resident population, variables concerning the agricultural and tourist sectors, as well as climatic-territorial variables. Methodology To conduct a comprehensive analysis of the socio-economic and agricultural landscape of each municipality within the Umbria region, we have employed an approach centered on several territorial indicators. By using this group of indicators, a suitability index is built, combining four macro-indicators, which include the simple indicators (variables). The first macro-indicator focuses on socio-economic variables, aiming at offering a comprehensive view of the social and economic conditions across the 92 municipalities in the region. The variables composing this indicator are primarily sourced from the permanent census of population and housing provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). Key variables considered include dependency ratio, education level, activity and unemployment rates, migration patterns, and per capita income. The second macro-indicator delves into the agricultural sector, aiming at identifying municipalities where agricultural practices are inclined towards innovation and sustainability. Significant variables encompass the percentage of agricultural land dedicated to PDO crops and/or livestock, the extent of land under DOC and/or DOCG vine cultivation, the prevalence of organic farming and/or certified organic livestock, and the percentage of farms with an online presence. Furthermore, it includes indicators related to human capital, such as the proportion of farm owners under 40 years old and those with higher education degrees. Data for analyzing the Umbrian agricultural sector is sourced from ISTAT, specifically from the 7th General Agricultural Census. The third macro-indicator pertains to the tourism sector, acknowledged as a pivotal driver for rural development. Variables within this indicator, largely sourced from data provided by the Umbria region, encompass tourist arrivals and overnight stays, the number and type of accommodation facilities, average occupancy rates, seasonality patterns, restaurant counts, and their respective average ratings sourced from Google Maps data. The fourth macro-indicator incorporates territorial climatic data obtained from the Ania-Geosafe portal, which provides a service through a geographic information system covering the national territory. The indicators have undergone normalization to ensure comparability. Subsequently, weights were assigned to each individual variable and to each macro-indicator. Among various methods for weighting variables, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) using pairwise comparison emerged as the most suitable approach. To derive weights for all variables, 20 industry experts, including agronomists, viticulturists, local stakeholders, and tourism industry operators, were consulted. They assessed the significance of variables via pairwise comparison utilizing a comparison matrix. When comparing two elements, experts assigned values from a scale ranging from 1 to 9 to each pair of variables. In this scale, 1 indicates two variables of equal importance, while 9 signifies the greatest disparity between two variables under evaluation. To calculate variables weights, cell values of the pairwise comparison matrix were normalized by dividing them by the sum of the column. Subsequently, the values were averaged per row (Saaty 1987). Following the computation of the consistency ratio, a measure of the coherence of evaluations conducted by experts, and verifying its acceptability, the suitability index for each municipality in the Umbria region was determined by aggregating the weighted values of its variables. Expected results and conclusions The study findings include a ranking that categorizes the 92 municipalities based on their suitability for introducing an innovative vineyard in their area, from the most suitable to the least. Furthermore, a map illustrating the suitability index of Umbrian municipalities has been generated. Significantly, first results indicate that mountain municipalities show a greater inclination towards implementing this innovative sparkling wine vineyard, especially due to their more suitable climatic characteristics. These insights provide local governments with a valuable analytical tool to assess development opportunities and economic growth that the implementation of the aforementioned innovative vineyard can bring to their territory, addressing challenges such as depopulation and land abandonment.