CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE (BRI): CHINESE LINKAGE AND LEVERAGE, DEMOCRATIZATION, AND REGIME CHANGE IN ASIA

This thesis examines China’s global connectivity plan – the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its political implications in partner countries, specifically focusing on its impact on democratization and regime change. With the rise of China, amidst declining levels of democracy, and changing nature of autocratization, this research examines if the increased Chinese engagement under BRI poses challenges to democratization in partner regimes. This thesis puts forth a novel and multidimensional conceptual framework of ‘Chinese Linkage and Leverage’ based on the seminal work of Levitsky and Way’s Western Linkage and Leverage that they use for analyzing regime change (Levitsky and Way 2010). Based on their theoretical framework, I conceptualize the Chinese Linkage and Leverage to analyze various layers and levels of Chinese engagement, specifically in the BRI partner regimes. I operationalize the independent variable of Chinese Linkage along five dimensions namely, economic, social, cultural, communication, and intergovernmental ties for 32 countries in Asia using China’s Public Diplomacy data from AidData. I operationalize the dependent variable of democratization using the Liberal Democracy Index (LDI) from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data and examine any trends toward de-democratization in partner countries. Additionally, I use the Regimes of the World (ROW) measure from V-Dem data to examine the effects on regime type for diverse regimes in Asia. My research uses a mixed methods (MM) research design by employing a quantitative method of the time-series cross-sectional or panel data analysis, and a qualitative case study approach. I conduct a panel regression analysis with a fixed-effects (FE) model with both disaggregated and aggregated Chinese Linkage Index (CLI). My findings show mixed evidence. At a disaggregated level analysis, the Confucius Institutes (CIs) indicate a negative and significant effect, whereas the journalist visits show a positive and significant result on democratization levels in the BRI partner countries. However, the aggregated Chinese Linkage Index (CLI) did not have any significant effect on de-democratization levels in partner countries. Since linkage is assumed to have a cluster effect, the thesis negates the claims of the de-democratizing effect of China’s influence under BRI. Moreover, the findings from the case of Pakistan also did not find a substantial observable China impact on hindering democracy as the domestic influences have been stronger as compared to the external Chinese influences on de-democratization in Pakistan.