Public investment in Big Science generates social benefits that can ultimately support economic growth. This paper implements a model for the social Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) of Big Science and relies on Monte Carlo methods to quantify the uncertainty of long-term projections. We evaluate social costs and benefits of the High Luminosity upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) at CERN up to 2038. Monte Carlo simulations show that there is a 94% chance to observe a positive net present value for society. The attractiveness of CERN for Early Stage Researchers and technological spillovers for collaborating firms are key for a positive CBA result. Cultural effects, especially those related to onsite visitors, also contribute to generating societal benefits.
Projecting the socio-economic impact of a big science center: the world’s largest particle accelerator at CERN / A. Bastianin, C. Del Bo, M. Florio, F. Giffoni. - In: APPLIED ECONOMICS. - ISSN 0003-6846. - (2023), pp. 1-22. [Epub ahead of print] [10.1080/00036846.2022.2140763]
Projecting the socio-economic impact of a big science center: the world’s largest particle accelerator at CERN
A. Bastianin
Primo
;C. Del Bo;M. Florio;
2023
Abstract
Public investment in Big Science generates social benefits that can ultimately support economic growth. This paper implements a model for the social Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) of Big Science and relies on Monte Carlo methods to quantify the uncertainty of long-term projections. We evaluate social costs and benefits of the High Luminosity upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) at CERN up to 2038. Monte Carlo simulations show that there is a 94% chance to observe a positive net present value for society. The attractiveness of CERN for Early Stage Researchers and technological spillovers for collaborating firms are key for a positive CBA result. Cultural effects, especially those related to onsite visitors, also contribute to generating societal benefits.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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01 BDFG 2022 AppEc.pdf
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