Objective We aimed at predicting cancer mortality rates for the current year for the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Israel, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Korea, and Australia, with a focus on colorectal cancer. Methods We retrieved official death certification and population data from the WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases. We analyzed mortality for all cancers combined and for 10 major cancer sites from 1970 to 2019, or the latest available year. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for 2022 using Poisson joinpoint regression models. We estimated the number of averted deaths over the period 1994-2022 because of the decline in mortality rates. Results Total cancer mortality declined in all countries and both sexes. Russia had the highest total cancer predicted rates for 2022: 156.4/100 000 (world standard) in men and 81.4 in women; the lowest rates were reported in Israeli men (90.6/100 000) and Korean women (44.5/100 000). Between 1994 and 2022, a total of 1 487 000 deaths were estimated to be avoided in Russia, 502 000 in Ukraine, 58 000 in Israel, 102 000 in Hong Kong SAR, 1 020 000 in Japan, 533 000 in the Republic of Korea, and 263 000 in Australia. Colorectal cancer mortality trends were downward for the last decades with favorable predictions for 2022 in both sexes. Conclusion In the countries considered, predicted downward trends started later and were less marked than those in the European Union and the USA. Despite overall favorable predictions, colorectal cancer remains one of the major causes of cancer mortality.

Cancer mortality and predictions for 2022 in selected Australasian countries, Russia, and Ukraine with a focus on colorectal cancer / M. Pizzato, C. La Vecchia, M. Malvezzi, F. Levi, P. Boffetta, E. Negri, M. Dalmartello. - In: EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF CANCER PREVENTION. - ISSN 0959-8278. - 32:1(2023 Jan 01), pp. 18-29. [10.1097/CEJ.0000000000000762]

Cancer mortality and predictions for 2022 in selected Australasian countries, Russia, and Ukraine with a focus on colorectal cancer

M. Pizzato
Primo
;
C. La Vecchia
Secondo
;
M. Malvezzi;M. Dalmartello
Ultimo
2023

Abstract

Objective We aimed at predicting cancer mortality rates for the current year for the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Israel, Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Korea, and Australia, with a focus on colorectal cancer. Methods We retrieved official death certification and population data from the WHO and the United Nations Population Division databases. We analyzed mortality for all cancers combined and for 10 major cancer sites from 1970 to 2019, or the latest available year. We predicted numbers of deaths and age-standardized mortality rates for 2022 using Poisson joinpoint regression models. We estimated the number of averted deaths over the period 1994-2022 because of the decline in mortality rates. Results Total cancer mortality declined in all countries and both sexes. Russia had the highest total cancer predicted rates for 2022: 156.4/100 000 (world standard) in men and 81.4 in women; the lowest rates were reported in Israeli men (90.6/100 000) and Korean women (44.5/100 000). Between 1994 and 2022, a total of 1 487 000 deaths were estimated to be avoided in Russia, 502 000 in Ukraine, 58 000 in Israel, 102 000 in Hong Kong SAR, 1 020 000 in Japan, 533 000 in the Republic of Korea, and 263 000 in Australia. Colorectal cancer mortality trends were downward for the last decades with favorable predictions for 2022 in both sexes. Conclusion In the countries considered, predicted downward trends started later and were less marked than those in the European Union and the USA. Despite overall favorable predictions, colorectal cancer remains one of the major causes of cancer mortality.
Australasia; cancer; mortality; projections; Russia; Ukraine;
Settore MED/01 - Statistica Medica
Settore MED/42 - Igiene Generale e Applicata
Settore MED/06 - Oncologia Medica
Settore MED/12 - Gastroenterologia
27-giu-2022
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2434/948530
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