Effect of Changes in Body Mass Index on the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes Mellitus in HIV-Positive Individuals: Results From the D:A:D Study

Background: Weight gain is common among people with HIV once antiretroviral treatment is commenced. We assess the effect of changes in body mass index (BMI), from different baseline BMI levels, on the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Methods: D:A:D participants receiving antiretroviral treatment were followed from their first BMI measurement to the first of either CVD or DM event, or earliest of January 2, 2016 or 6 months after last follow-up. Participants were stratified according to their baseline BMI, and changes from baseline BMI were calculated for each participant. Poisson regression models were used to assess the effects of changes on BMI on CVD or DM events. Results: There were 2104 CVD and 1583 DM events over 365,287 and 354,898 person-years [rate: CVD 5.8/1000 (95% confidence interval: 5.5 to 6.0); DM 4.5/1000 (95% confidence interval: 4.2 to 4.7)]. Participants were largely men (74%), baseline mean age of 40 years, and median BMI of 23.0 (IQR: 21.0-25.3). A risk of CVD by change in BMI from baseline, stratified by baseline BMI strata showed little evidence of an increased risk of CVD with an increased BMI in any baseline BMI strata. An increase in BMI was associated with an increased risk of DM across all baseline BMI strata. Conclusions: Although increases in BMI across all levels of baseline BMI were not associated with an increased risk of CVD, such changes were consistently associated with an increased risk of DM. There was also some evidence of an increased risk of CVD with a decrease in BMI.