How do populists make decisions? The Five Star Movement and the Lega in local government during the ‘refugee crisis’

The actions of populist parties in government are typically assumed to be driven more by their ‘host’ ideologies than by their ‘thin’ populist ideology, especially in the highly politicized field of migration policy. We challenge this assumption with an analysis of Italian local governments led by the populist Lega and Five Star Movement during the so-called ‘refugee crisis’. Our analysis not only examines their policies and discourses, but also enquires into their decision-making processes. To do so, we develop an approach that derives insights from framing and political marketing theories, and use it to reconstruct the decision-making processes of Italian local governments, relying on 46 semi-structured interviews with mayors. Our analysis shows, first, that there is frequent decoupling of populist actors’ discourses and actions from their parties’ (host) ideological positions towards migration. Second, to a greater extent compared to those of non-populist parties, the strategies of populist parties in local government are shaped by their perceptions of local attitudes to immigration and the need to act according to the perceived ‘will of the people’. Third, this voter-driven attitude leads to a populist policy-making approach characterized by an adaptation of migration policy choices to the perceived public salience of policy issues.