A prognostic model to predict survival after 6 months of ruxolitinib in patients with myelofibrosis

: Ruxolitinib (RUX) is extensively used in myelofibrosis (MF). Despite its early efficacy, most patients lose response over time and, after discontinuation, have a worse overall survival (OS). Currently, response criteria able to predict OS in RUX-treated patients are lacking, leading to uncertainty regarding the switch to second-line treatments. In this study, we investigated predictors of survival collected after six months of RUX in 209 MF patients participating in the real-world ambispective observational RUXOREL-MF study (NCT03959371). Multivariable analysis identified the following risk factors: (i) RUX dose <20 mg twice daily at baseline, month 3, and 6 (hazard ratio, HR, 1.79, 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.07-3.00, p=0.03), (ii) palpable spleen length reduction from baseline ≤30% at month 3 and 6 (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.40-3.65, p=0.0009), (iii) red blood cell (RBC) transfusion need at month 3 and/or 6 (HR 1.66, 95% CI 0.95-2.88, p=0.07), and (iv) RBC transfusion need at all time points, i.e. baseline and months 3 and 6 (HR 2.32, 95% CI 1.19-4.54, p=0.02). Hence, we developed a prognostic model, named Response to Ruxolitinib after 6 months (RR6), dissecting three risk categories: low (median OS not reached), intermediate (median OS 61 months, 95% CI 43-80), and high (median OS 33 months, 95% CI 21-50). The RR6 model was validated and confirmed in an external cohort comprised of 40 MF patients. In conclusion, the RR6 prognostic model allows for the early identification of RUX-treated MF patients with impaired survival who might benefit from a prompt treatment shift.