Recent literature on mortality modeling suggests to include in the dynamics of mortality rates the effects of time, age, the interaction of these two and a term for possible shocks. In this paper we investigate models that use Legendre polynomials for the inclusion of age and cohort effects. In order to capture the dynamics of the shock term it is suggested to consider continuous autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models due to their flexibility in reproducing different autoregressive profiles of the shock term. In order to validate the proposed model, different life tables are considered. In particular the male life tables for New Zealand, Taiwan and Japan are used for the presentation of in-sample fitting. Empirical analysis suggests that the inclusion of more flexible models such as higher-order CARMA(p,q) models leads to better in-sample fitting.

Lévy CARMA models for shocks in mortality / A. Hitaj, L. Mercuri, E. Rroji. - In: DECISIONS IN ECONOMICS AND FINANCE. - ISSN 1593-8883. - 42:1(2019 Jun), pp. 205-227. [10.1007/s10203-019-00248-9]

Lévy CARMA models for shocks in mortality

L. Mercuri
Secondo
;
2019

Abstract

Recent literature on mortality modeling suggests to include in the dynamics of mortality rates the effects of time, age, the interaction of these two and a term for possible shocks. In this paper we investigate models that use Legendre polynomials for the inclusion of age and cohort effects. In order to capture the dynamics of the shock term it is suggested to consider continuous autoregressive moving average (CARMA) models due to their flexibility in reproducing different autoregressive profiles of the shock term. In order to validate the proposed model, different life tables are considered. In particular the male life tables for New Zealand, Taiwan and Japan are used for the presentation of in-sample fitting. Empirical analysis suggests that the inclusion of more flexible models such as higher-order CARMA(p,q) models leads to better in-sample fitting.
CARMA(p; Force of mortality; Lévy process; q) model
Settore SECS-S/06 - Metodi mat. dell'economia e Scienze Attuariali e Finanziarie
giu-2019
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2434/881456
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