Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Cromwell, E.A.; Osborne, J.C.P.; Unnasch, T.R.; Basanez, M.; Gass, K.M.; Barbre, K.A.; Hill, E.; Johnson, K.B.; Donkers, K.M.; Shirude, S.; Schmidt, C.A.; Adekanmbi, V.; Adetokunboh, O.O.; Afarideh, M.; Ahmadpour, E.; Beshir Ahmed, M.; Yihunie Akalu, T.; Al-Aly, Z.; Alanezi, F.M.; Alanzi, T.M.; Alipour, V.; Andrei, C.L.; Ansari, F.; Ansha, M.G.; Anvari, D.; Yaw Appiah, S.C.; Arabloo, J.; Arnold, B.F.; Ausloos, M.; Ayanore, M.A.; Amin Baig, A.; Banach, M.; Barac, A.; Barnighausen, T.W.; Bayati, M.; Bhattacharyya, K.; Bhutta, Z.A.; Bibi, S.; Bijani, A.; Bohlouli, S.; Bohluli, M.; Brady, O.J.; Bragazzi, N.L.; Butt, Z.A.; Carvalho, F.; Chatterjee, S.; Chattu, V.K.; Chattu, S.K.; Cormier, N.M.; Dahlawi, S.M.A.; Damiani, G.; Daoud, F.; Darwesh, A.M.; Daryani, A.; Deribe, K.; Dharmaratne, S.D.; Diaz, D.; H. T., D.; El Sayed Zak, M.; El Tantawi, M.; Elemineh, D.A.; Faraj, A.; Harandi, M.F.; Fatahi, Y.; Feigin, V.L.; Fernandes, E.; Foigt, N.A.; Foroutan, M.; Franklin, R.C.; Mohialdeen Gubari, M.I.; Guido, D.; Guo, Y.; Haj-Mirzaian, A.; Abdullah, K.H.; Hamidi, S.; Herteliu, C.; De Hidru, H.D.; Higazi, T.B.; Hossain, N.; Hosseinzadeh, M.; Househ, M.; Ilesanmi, O.S.; Ilic, M.D.; Ilic, I.M.; Iqbal, U.; Naghibi Irvani, S.S.; Jha, R.P.; Joukar, F.; Jozwiak, J.J.; Kabir, Z.; Kalankesh, L.R.; Kalhor, R.; Matin, B.K.; Karimi, S.E.; Kasaeian, A.; Kavetskyy, T.; Kayode, G.A.; Karyani, A.K.; Kelbore, A.G.; Keramati, M.; Khalilov, R.; Khan, E.A.; Nuruzzaman Khan, M.N.; Khatab, K.; Khater, M.M.; Kianipour, N.; Kibret, K.T.; Kim, Y.J.; Kosen, S.; Krohn, K.J.; Kusuma, D.; La Vecchia, C.; Lansingh Van, C.; Lee, P.H.; Legrand, K.E.; Li, S.; Longbottom, J.; Abd El Razek, H.M.; Abd El Razek, M.M.; Maleki, A.; Mamun, A.A.; Manafi, A.; Manafi, N.; Mansournia, M.A.; Martins-Melo, F.R.; Mazidi, M.; Mcalinden, C.; Meharie, B.G.; Mendoza, W.; Mengesha, E.W.; Mengistu, D.T.; Mereta, S.T.; Mestrovic, T.; Miller, T.R.; Miri, M.; Moghadaszadeh, M.; Hafshejani, A.M.; Mohammadpourhodki, R.; Mohammed, S.; Mohammed, S.; Moradi, M.; Moradzadeh, R.; Moraga, P.; Mosser, J.F.; Naderi, M.; Nagarajan, A.J.; Naik, G.; Negoi, I.; Nguyen, C.T.; Nguyen, H.L.T.; Nguyen, T.H.; Nikbakhsh, R.; Oancea, B.; Olagunju, T.O.; Olagunju, A.T.; Bali, A.O.; Onwujekwe, O.E.; Pana, A.; Pourjafar, H.; Rahim, F.; Ur Rahman, M.H.; Rathi, P.; Rawaf, S.; Rawaf, D.L.; Rawassizadeh, R.; Resnikoff, S.; Reta, M.A.; Rezapour, A.; Rubagotti, E.; Rubino, S.; Sadeghi, E.; Saghafipour, A.; Sajadi, S.M.; Samy, A.M.; Sarmiento-Suarez, R.; Sawhney, M.; Schipp, M.F.; Shaheen, A.A.; Shaikh, M.A.; Shamsizadeh, M.; Sharafi, K.; Sheikh, A.; Kumar Shetty, B.S.; Shin, J.I.; Shivakumar, K.M.; Simonetti, B.; Singh, J.A.; Skiadaresi, E.; Soheili, A.; Soltani, S.; Spurlock, E.E.; Sufiyan, M.B.; Tabuchi, T.; Tapak, L.; Thompson, R.L.; Thomson, A.J.; Traini, E.; Tran, B.X.; Ullah, I.; Ullah, S.; Uneke, C.J.; Unnikrishnan, B.; Uthman, O.A.; Melchers, N.V.S.V.; Violante, F.S.; Wolde, H.F.; Wonde, T.E.; Yamada, T.; Yaya, S.; Yazdi Feyzabadi, V.; Yip, P.; Yonemoto, N.; Yousof, H.-.S.A.; Yu, C.; Yu, Y.; Yusefzadeh, H.; Zaki, L.; Zaman, S.B.; Zamanian, M.; Zhang, Z.-.; Zhang, Y.; Ziapour, A.; Hay, S.I.; Pigott, D.M.

doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning / E.A. Cromwell, J.C.P. Osborne, T.R. Unnasch, M. Basanez, K.M. Gass, K.A. Barbre, E. Hill, K.B. Johnson, K.M. Donkers, S. Shirude, C.A. Schmidt, V. Adekanmbi, O.O. Adetokunboh, M. Afarideh, E. Ahmadpour, M. Beshir Ahmed, T. Yihunie Akalu, Z. Al-Aly, F.M. Alanezi, T.M. Alanzi, V. Alipour, C.L. Andrei, F. Ansari, M.G. Ansha, D. Anvari, S.C. Yaw Appiah, J. Arabloo, B.F. Arnold, M. Ausloos, M.A. Ayanore, A. Amin Baig, M. Banach, A. Barac, T.W. Barnighausen, M. Bayati, K. Bhattacharyya, Z.A. Bhutta, S. Bibi, A. Bijani, S. Bohlouli, M. Bohluli, O.J. Brady, N.L. Bragazzi, Z.A. Butt, F. Carvalho, S. Chatterjee, V.K. Chattu, S.K. Chattu, N.M. Cormier, S.M.A. Dahlawi, G. Damiani, F. Daoud, A.M. Darwesh, A. Daryani, K. Deribe, S.D. Dharmaratne, D. Diaz, H.T. Do, M. El Sayed Zak, M. El Tantawi, D.A. Elemineh, A. Faraj, M.F. Harandi, Y. Fatahi, V.L. Feigin, E. Fernandes, N.A. Foigt, M. Foroutan, R.C. Franklin, M.I. Mohialdeen Gubari, D. Guido, Y. Guo, A. Haj-Mirzaian, K.H. Abdullah, S. Hamidi, C. Herteliu, H.D. De Hidru, T.B. Higazi, N. Hossain, M. Hosseinzadeh, M. Househ, O.S. Ilesanmi, M.D. Ilic, I.M. Ilic, U. Iqbal, S.S. Naghibi Irvani, R.P. Jha, F. Joukar, J.J. Jozwiak, Z. Kabir, L.R. Kalankesh, R. Kalhor, B.K. Matin, S.E. Karimi, A. Kasaeian, T. Kavetskyy, G.A. Kayode, A.K. Karyani, A.G. Kelbore, M. Keramati, R. Khalilov, E.A. Khan, M.N. Nuruzzaman Khan, K. Khatab, M.M. Khater, N. Kianipour, K.T. Kibret, Y.J. Kim, S. Kosen, K.J. Krohn, D. Kusuma, C. La Vecchia, C. Lansingh Van, P.H. Lee, K.E. Legrand, S. Li, J. Longbottom, H.M. Abd El Razek, M.M. Abd El Razek, A. Maleki, A.A. Mamun, A. Manafi, N. Manafi, M.A. Mansournia, F.R. Martins-Melo, M. Mazidi, C. McAlinden, B.G. Meharie, W. Mendoza, E.W. Mengesha, D.T. Mengistu, S.T. Mereta, T. Mestrovic, T.R. Miller, M. Miri, M. Moghadaszadeh, A.M. Hafshejani, R. Mohammadpourhodki, S. Mohammed, S. Mohammed, M. Moradi, R. Moradzadeh, P. Moraga, J.F. Mosser, M. Naderi, A.J. Nagarajan, G. Naik, I. Negoi, C.T. Nguyen, H.L.T. Nguyen, T.H. Nguyen, R. Nikbakhsh, B. Oancea, T.O. Olagunju, A.T. Olagunju, A.O. Bali, O.E. Onwujekwe, A. Pana, H. Pourjafar, F. Rahim, M.H. Ur Rahman, P. Rathi, S. Rawaf, D.L. Rawaf, R. Rawassizadeh, S. Resnikoff, M.A. Reta, A. Rezapour, E. Rubagotti, S. Rubino, E. Sadeghi, A. Saghafipour, S.M. Sajadi, A.M. Samy, R. Sarmiento-Suarez, M. Sawhney, M.F. Schipp, A.A. Shaheen, M.A. Shaikh, M. Shamsizadeh, K. Sharafi, A. Sheikh, B.S. Kumar Shetty, J.I. Shin, K.M. Shivakumar, B. Simonetti, J.A. Singh, E. Skiadaresi, A. Soheili, S. Soltani, E.E. Spurlock, M.B. Sufiyan, T. Tabuchi, L. Tapak, R.L. Thompson, A.J. Thomson, E. Traini, B.X. Tran, I. Ullah, S. Ullah, C.J. Uneke, B. Unnikrishnan, O.A. Uthman, N.V.S.V. Melchers, F.S. Violante, H.F. Wolde, T.E. Wonde, T. Yamada, S. Yaya, V. Yazdi Feyzabadi, P. Yip, N. Yonemoto, H.-.S.A. Yousof, C. Yu, Y. Yu, H. Yusefzadeh, L. Zaki, S.B. Zaman, M. Zamanian, Z.-. Zhang, Y. Zhang, A. Ziapour, S.I. Hay, D.M. Pigott. - In: PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES. - ISSN 1935-2735. - 15:7(2021), pp. e0008824.1-e0008824.23. [10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824]

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Cromwell E. A.;Osborne J. C. P.;Unnasch T. R.;Basanez M.;Gass K. M.;Barbre K. A.;Hill E.;Johnson K. B.;Donkers K. M.;Shirude S.;Schmidt C. A.;Adekanmbi V.;Adetokunboh O. O.;Afarideh M.;Ahmadpour E.;Beshir Ahmed M.;Yihunie Akalu T.;Al-Aly Z.;Alanezi F. M.;Alanzi T. M.;Alipour V.;Andrei C. L.;Ansari F.;Ansha M. G.;Anvari D.;Yaw Appiah S. C.;Arabloo J.;Arnold B. F.;Ausloos M.;Ayanore M. A.;Amin Baig A.;Banach M.;Barac A.;Barnighausen T. W.;Bayati M.;Bhattacharyya K.;Bhutta Z. A.;Bibi S.;Bijani A.;Bohlouli S.;Bohluli M.;Brady O. J.;Bragazzi N. L.;Butt Z. A.;Carvalho F.;Chatterjee S.;Chattu V. K.;Chattu S. K.;Cormier N. M.;Dahlawi S. M. A.;G. Damiani;Daoud F.;Darwesh A. M.;Daryani A.;Deribe K.;Dharmaratne S. D.;Diaz D.;Do H. T.;El Sayed Zak M.;El Tantawi M.;Elemineh D. A.;Faraj A.;Harandi M. F.;Fatahi Y.;Feigin V. L.;Fernandes E.;Foigt N. A.;Foroutan M.;Franklin R. C.;Mohialdeen Gubari M. I.;Guido D.;Guo Y.;Haj-Mirzaian A.;Abdullah K. H.;Hamidi S.;Herteliu C.;De Hidru H. D.;Higazi T. B.;Hossain N.;Hosseinzadeh M.;Househ M.;Ilesanmi O. S.;Ilic M. D.;Ilic I. M.;Iqbal U.;Naghibi Irvani S. S.;Jha R. P.;Joukar F.;Jozwiak J. J.;Kabir Z.;Kalankesh L. R.;Kalhor R.;Matin B. K.;Karimi S. E.;Kasaeian A.;Kavetskyy T.;Kayode G. A.;Karyani A. K.;Kelbore A. G.;Keramati M.;Khalilov R.;Khan E. A.;Nuruzzaman Khan M. N.;Khatab K.;Khater M. M.;Kianipour N.;Kibret K. T.;Kim Y. J.;Kosen S.;Krohn K. J.;Kusuma D.;C. La Vecchia;Lansingh Van C.;Lee P. H.;Legrand K. E.;Li S.;Longbottom J.;Abd El Razek H. M.;Abd El Razek M. M.;Maleki A.;Mamun A. A.;Manafi A.;Manafi N.;Mansournia M. A.;Martins-Melo F. R.;Mazidi M.;McAlinden C.;Meharie B. G.;Mendoza W.;Mengesha E. W.;Mengistu D. T.;Mereta S. T.;Mestrovic T.;Miller T. R.;Miri M.;Moghadaszadeh M.;Hafshejani A. M.;Mohammadpourhodki R.;Mohammed S.;Mohammed S.;Moradi M.;Moradzadeh R.;Moraga P.;Mosser J. F.;Naderi M.;Nagarajan A. J.;Naik G.;Negoi I.;Nguyen C. T.;Nguyen H. L. T.;Nguyen T. H.;Nikbakhsh R.;Oancea B.;Olagunju T. O.;Olagunju A. T.;Bali A. O.;Onwujekwe O. E.;Pana A.;Pourjafar H.;Rahim F.;Ur Rahman M. H.;Rathi P.;Rawaf S.;Rawaf D. L.;Rawassizadeh R.;Resnikoff S.;Reta M. A.;Rezapour A.;Rubagotti E.;Rubino S.;Sadeghi E.;Saghafipour A.;Sajadi S. M.;Samy A. M.;Sarmiento-Suarez R.;Sawhney M.;Schipp M. F.;Shaheen A. A.;Shaikh M. A.;Shamsizadeh M.;Sharafi K.;Sheikh A.;Kumar Shetty B. S.;Shin J. I.;Shivakumar K. M.;Simonetti B.;Singh J. A.;Skiadaresi E.;Soheili A.;Soltani S.;Spurlock E. E.;Sufiyan M. B.;Tabuchi T.;Tapak L.;Thompson R. L.;Thomson A. J.;Traini E.;Tran B. X.;Ullah I.;Ullah S.;Uneke C. J.;Unnikrishnan B.;Uthman O. A.;Melchers N. V. S. V.;Violante F. S.;Wolde H. F.;Wonde T. E.;Yamada T.;Yaya S.;Yazdi Feyzabadi V.;Yip P.;Yonemoto N.;Yousof H. -A. S. A.;Yu C.;Yu Y.;Yusefzadeh H.;Zaki L.;Zaman S. B.;Zamanian M.;Zhang Z. -J.;Zhang Y.;Ziapour A.;Hay S. I.;Pigott D. M.

2021

Abstract

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.

Scheda breve

Scheda completa

Scheda completa (DC)

	Settori scientifico-disciplinari dell'articolo
	
			Settore MED/01 - Statistica Medica
		
	Data di pubblicazione
	
			2021
		
	Data ahead of print o data di stampa
	
			28-lug-2021
		
	Rivista in ANCE
	
			PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES
		
	DOI
	
			https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824
		
	Tipologia
	
			Article (author)
		
	Appare nelle tipologie:
	
			01 - Articolo su periodico

File in questo prodotto:

File	Dimensione	Formato
Predicting Onchocerciasis PLOS Cromwell journal.pntd.0008824.pdf accesso aperto Tipologia: Publisher's version/PDF Dimensione 3.43 MB Formato Adobe PDF Visualizza/Apri	3.43 MB	Adobe PDF	Visualizza/Apri

Pubblicazioni consigliate

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2434/860197

Citazioni

3

9

8

IRIS Institutional Research Information System - AIR Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca