In and out lockdowns: Identifying the centrality of economic activities

The effects of the Covid lockdown have been very severe in Italy, with a reduction in the value of potential output produced peaking at 69% for the construction and real estate and 63% for Mechanics. As a result, GDP is expected to drop by around 10% in 2020, according to most forecasts. Most activities were reopened on May 4th, although within strict social distancing and health safety guidelines. In this paper we argue that a targeted exit from the lockdown could have been implemented instead. Priority could have been given to those activities with the greatest impact on the national economy. This targeted strategy, combined with an assessment of the inherent health risks of each activity, would have reduced the risks of a second wave of contagion, still reactivating gross output and jobs to a similar extent of the general reopening actually implemented. In this study we propose a methodology to identify production activities for which total or partial closures or reopening would have the greatest impact on the country's GDP, output and employment, using input output tables and network centrality measures in production chains. The administrative lockdown implemented up to May 4th, if kept for one year, would wipe out 52% of GDP. The targeted reopening proposed here would reduce this negative impact by 70%. Our methodology could be applied also in the in the unfortunate event of a new wave of contagion and a new targeted lockdown.