During the Great Recession, exceptionally harsh economic conditions were often countered by austerity policies that, according to many, further worsened and protracted the negative conjuncture. Both elements, the poor state of the economy and the contractionary manoeuvers, are supposed to reduce the electoral prospects for incumbents. In this article, we compare the relative explanatory powers of these two theories before and during the economic crisis. We demonstrate that in normal times citizens are fiscally responsible, whereas during the Great Recession, and under certain conditions, austerity policies systematically reduced the support for incumbents on top of the state of the economy. This happened when the burdens of the manoeuvers were shared by many, in more equal societies, when the country was constrained by external conditionalities and when readjustments were mostly based on tax increases.

Economy or austerity? Drivers of retrospective voting before and during the Great Recession / M. Giuliani. - In: INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW. - ISSN 0192-5121. - 43:2(2022 Mar 01), pp. 173-190. [10.1177/0192512120919138]

Economy or austerity? Drivers of retrospective voting before and during the Great Recession

M. Giuliani
2022

Abstract

During the Great Recession, exceptionally harsh economic conditions were often countered by austerity policies that, according to many, further worsened and protracted the negative conjuncture. Both elements, the poor state of the economy and the contractionary manoeuvers, are supposed to reduce the electoral prospects for incumbents. In this article, we compare the relative explanatory powers of these two theories before and during the economic crisis. We demonstrate that in normal times citizens are fiscally responsible, whereas during the Great Recession, and under certain conditions, austerity policies systematically reduced the support for incumbents on top of the state of the economy. This happened when the burdens of the manoeuvers were shared by many, in more equal societies, when the country was constrained by external conditionalities and when readjustments were mostly based on tax increases.
Economic vote; austerity; Great Recession; electoral behaviour; conditionality; inequality
Settore SPS/04 - Scienza Politica
   Politics e Policy in Europa in tempo di crisi: Cause e Conseguenze
   MINISTERO DELL'ISTRUZIONE E DEL MERITO
   2015P7RCL5_001
1-mar-2022
1-giu-2020
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2434/738629
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