Italy was the first European country hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and has the highest number of recorded COVID-19 deaths in Europe. This prospective cohort study of the correlates of the risk of death in COVID-19 patients was conducted at the Infectious Diseases and Intensive Care units of Luigi Sacco Hospital, Milan, Italy. The clinical characteristics of all the COVID-19 patients hospitalised in the early days of the epidemic (21 February -19 March 2020) were recorded upon admission, and the time-dependent probability of death was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method (censored as of 20 April 2020). Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the factors independently associated with the risk of death. Forty-eight (20.6%) of the 233 patients followed up for a median of 40 days (interquartile range 33-47) died during the follow-up. Most were males (69.1%) and their median age was 61 years (IQR 50-72). The time-dependent probability of death was 19.7% (95% CI 14.6-24.9%) 30 days after hospital admission. Age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.08, 95% CI 1.48-2.92 per ten years more) and obesity (aHR 3.04, 95% CI 1.42-6.49) were independently associated with an increased risk of death, which was also associated with critical disease (aHR 8.26, 95% CI 1.41-48.29), C-reactive protein levels (aHR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.35 per 50 mg/L more) and creatinine kinase levels above 185 U/L (aHR 2.58, 95% CI 1.37-4.87) upon admission. Case-fatality rate of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the early days of the Italian epidemic was about 20%. Our study adds evidence to the notion that older age, obesity and more advanced illness are factors associated to an increased risk of death among patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

30-day mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first wave of the Italian epidemic: a prospective cohort study / A. Giacomelli, A.L. Ridolfo, L. Milazzo, L. Oreni, D. Bernacchia, M. Siano, C. Bonazzetti, A. Covizzi, M. Schiuma, M. Passerini, M. Piscaglia, M. Coen, G. Gubertini, G. Rizzardini, C. Cogliati, A.M. Brambilla, R. Colombo, A. Castelli, R. Rech, A. Riva, A. Torre, L. Meroni, S. Rusconi, S. Antinor, M. Galli. - In: PHARMACOLOGICAL RESEARCH. - ISSN 1043-6618. - (2020). [Epub ahead of print] [10.1016/j.phrs.2020.104931]

30-day mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first wave of the Italian epidemic: a prospective cohort study

A. Giacomelli
Primo
;
D. Bernacchia;M. Siano;C. Bonazzetti;A. Covizzi;M. Schiuma;M. Passerini;M. Piscaglia;A.M. Brambilla;A. Riva;A. Torre;S. Rusconi;S. Antinor
Penultimo
;
M. Galli
Ultimo
2020

Abstract

Italy was the first European country hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and has the highest number of recorded COVID-19 deaths in Europe. This prospective cohort study of the correlates of the risk of death in COVID-19 patients was conducted at the Infectious Diseases and Intensive Care units of Luigi Sacco Hospital, Milan, Italy. The clinical characteristics of all the COVID-19 patients hospitalised in the early days of the epidemic (21 February -19 March 2020) were recorded upon admission, and the time-dependent probability of death was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method (censored as of 20 April 2020). Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the factors independently associated with the risk of death. Forty-eight (20.6%) of the 233 patients followed up for a median of 40 days (interquartile range 33-47) died during the follow-up. Most were males (69.1%) and their median age was 61 years (IQR 50-72). The time-dependent probability of death was 19.7% (95% CI 14.6-24.9%) 30 days after hospital admission. Age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.08, 95% CI 1.48-2.92 per ten years more) and obesity (aHR 3.04, 95% CI 1.42-6.49) were independently associated with an increased risk of death, which was also associated with critical disease (aHR 8.26, 95% CI 1.41-48.29), C-reactive protein levels (aHR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.35 per 50 mg/L more) and creatinine kinase levels above 185 U/L (aHR 2.58, 95% CI 1.37-4.87) upon admission. Case-fatality rate of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the early days of the Italian epidemic was about 20%. Our study adds evidence to the notion that older age, obesity and more advanced illness are factors associated to an increased risk of death among patients hospitalized with COVID-19.
SARS-CoV-2Italy30-day mortalityobesityadvanced age
Settore MED/17 - Malattie Infettive
22-mag-2020
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/2434/736568
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