Do elections matter?

The United Nations have been involved in the field of electoral assistance since its founding in 1945. After the end of the Cold War, a number of other national and international, governmental and nongovernmental organizations gave rise to a flourishing industry in the democratization field. Countries which previously suffered decades of civil war began a peace process, and many one-party or military regimes were replaced by governments deriving their mandates from multi-party elections. Donor governments, international organizations and NGOs became involved in electoral assistance and sent thousands of elections observers to these countries. [1] While scholars and policy makers admit how complex and multi-faceted the problem of democratization is (there are historical, cultural and institutional factors enabling democracy to prosper), in practice, policy measures were strongly focused on elections. Implicit in this emphasis on multi-party elections is the assumption that elections are pivotal for peace and democratization. As Benjamin Reilly said, the reason for this is clear: “elections provide an inescapable mean for jump-starting a new, post-conflict political order; for stimulating the development of democratic politics; for choosing representatives; for forming governments; and for conferring legitimacy upon the new political order”. [2] Post-conflict elections are seen as the tool to advance two distinct but interrelated goals: war termination and democratization. In fact transitional elections are the expression of political change, the catalyst for international action, and the frame for evolving ideas on the nature of democracy. Peace and elections are interrelated elements of the democratization process: elections have to be peaceful, but in the same time elections can help to solve the conflict because political parties (former enemies) have to take part in a transition pact, a process that is useful to create public confidence and therefore a genuine democratization. Analysts and policymakers interested in helping to foster a stable peace after elections have focused on such variable as elections freeness and fairness, different kinds of intervention, security problems and finally effects of the electoral formula. Surprisingly, very little work has been done to examine empirically whether peace is more likely to last in cases where elections are conducted properly: do elections matter? From the existing studies, it is not at all clear whether elections work. A closer look is clearly needed.