Toscana virus (TosV), a sandfly fever virus, is one of the main causes of the aseptic meningitis that occurs during the summer in some Mediterranean regions, and whose epidemiology is largely unknown. We used a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach and a relaxed molecular clock to estimate the demographic history of the TosV infection in a series of isolates sampled between 1980 and 2003. The estimated mean evolutionary rate was 2.5 x 10(-4) substitutions per site per year (95% HPD: 0.31-5.44 x 10(-4)subs/site/year). Bayesian skyline plot revealed a sharp decline in the effective number of infections over the last 30 years. In conclusion, our data suggest that continuous and prolonged perturbations of vector/phlebovirus interactions due to the relatively recent climate changes may have contributed to gradually reducing the viral population in endemic areas.
Bayesian skyline plot inference of the Toscana virus epidemic : a decline in the effective number of infections over the last 30 years / G. Zehender, F. Bernini, M. Delogu ,M.G. Cusi, G. Rezza, M. Galli, M. Ciccozzi. - In: INFECTION GENETICS AND EVOLUTION. - ISSN 1567-1348. - 9:4(2009 Jul), pp. 562-566.
|Titolo:||Bayesian skyline plot inference of the Toscana virus epidemic : a decline in the effective number of infections over the last 30 years|
ZEHENDER, GIANGUGLIELMO (Primo)
BERNINI, FLAVIA (Secondo)
GALLI, MASSIMO (Penultimo)
|Parole Chiave:||Bayesian; Coalescent theory; Phlebovirus; Toscana virus|
|Settore Scientifico Disciplinare:||Settore MED/17 - Malattie Infettive|
|Data di pubblicazione:||lug-2009|
|Digital Object Identifier (DOI):||http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.meegid.2009.02.007|
|Appare nelle tipologie:||01 - Articolo su periodico|