We estimated mortality figures for 2019 in seven Latin American countries, with focus on breast cancer. We retrieved cancer death certification and population data from the WHO and PAHO databases. We obtained mortality statistics for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela for 1970-2015. We predicted current death numbers and age-standardized (world population) mortality rates using joinpoint regression models. Total cancer mortality is predicted to decline in all countries and both sexes, except Argentinean women. Cuba had the highest all cancer rates for 2019, 136.9/100,000 men and 90.4 women, while Mexico showed the lowest ones, 63.8/100,000 men and 61.9 women. Stomach cancer showed favourable trends over the whole period, while colorectal cancer only recently. Lung cancer rates declined in men, while in women they decreased slightly over most recent years, only. In Cuban women, lung cancer rates overtook breast cancer ones. Breast cancer showed overall favourable trends, but rates are rising in young women. Prostate and uterine cancer had favourable trends. Pancreas, ovary, bladder and leukaemias showed slightly decreasing trends. Between 1990 and 2019, mortality from all neoplasms is predicted to fall by about 18% in Argentina, 26% in Chile, 14% in Colombia, 17% in Mexico and 13% in Venezuela, corresponding to almost 0.5 million avoided cancer deaths. No decline was observed in Brazil and Cuba. Of concern, the high lung cancer rates in Cuba, the possible increases in breast cancer in young women, and the lack of overall declines in Brazil, Cuba and Venezuelan men.

Cancer mortality predictions for 2019 in Latin America / G. Carioli, P. Bertuccio, M. Malvezzi, T. Rodriguez, F. Levi, P. Boffetta, C. La Vecchia, E. Negri. - In: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CANCER. - ISSN 0020-7136. - 2019(2019 Nov). [Epub ahead of print] [10.1002/ijc.32749]

Cancer mortality predictions for 2019 in Latin America

G. Carioli
Primo
;
P. Bertuccio
Secondo
;
M. Malvezzi;C. La Vecchia
Penultimo
;
E. Negri
Ultimo
2019

Abstract

We estimated mortality figures for 2019 in seven Latin American countries, with focus on breast cancer. We retrieved cancer death certification and population data from the WHO and PAHO databases. We obtained mortality statistics for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela for 1970-2015. We predicted current death numbers and age-standardized (world population) mortality rates using joinpoint regression models. Total cancer mortality is predicted to decline in all countries and both sexes, except Argentinean women. Cuba had the highest all cancer rates for 2019, 136.9/100,000 men and 90.4 women, while Mexico showed the lowest ones, 63.8/100,000 men and 61.9 women. Stomach cancer showed favourable trends over the whole period, while colorectal cancer only recently. Lung cancer rates declined in men, while in women they decreased slightly over most recent years, only. In Cuban women, lung cancer rates overtook breast cancer ones. Breast cancer showed overall favourable trends, but rates are rising in young women. Prostate and uterine cancer had favourable trends. Pancreas, ovary, bladder and leukaemias showed slightly decreasing trends. Between 1990 and 2019, mortality from all neoplasms is predicted to fall by about 18% in Argentina, 26% in Chile, 14% in Colombia, 17% in Mexico and 13% in Venezuela, corresponding to almost 0.5 million avoided cancer deaths. No decline was observed in Brazil and Cuba. Of concern, the high lung cancer rates in Cuba, the possible increases in breast cancer in young women, and the lack of overall declines in Brazil, Cuba and Venezuelan men.
Latin America; breast cancer; cancer; mortality; projections
Settore MED/01 - Statistica Medica
   Modelling, interpretation and forecasting of cancer mortality: a global perspective (3º anno)
   FONDAZIONE AIRC PER LA RICERCA SUL CANCRO ETS
   IG 2016 Id.18440

   Modelling, interpretation and forecasting of cancer incidence and mortality in Europe
   Cancer Mortality EU
   MINISTERO DELL'ISTRUZIONE E DEL MERITO
   RBSI1465UH
nov-2019
nov-2019
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2434/684712
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