Variable fault tip propagation rates affected by near-surface lithology and implications for fault displacement hazard assessment

The fabric of reverse fault zones close to the surface is usually partitioned in between a narrow discrete rupture zone and a more distributed one, where folding is predominant. This makes quite challenging the adoption of proper setbacks in surface rupture hazard studies for critical facilities or microzoning. Some of the parameters controlling fault zone fabric are related to mechanics of near-surface geology (lithology, overburden thickness, cohesion and water content) whose interaction is complex and only partially understood. Nevertheless, these can be seldom measured or derived. Kinematic models, conversely, express such an interaction of complex variables as simple synthetic parameters, such as the amount of upward propagation of the fault tip for unit of slip, usually referred to as the P/S ratio (Propagation on Slip). Here, we discuss results on the trishear kinematic inverse modeling of a contractional fault propagation fold at Monte Netto Hill (Capriano del Colle, N. Italy), observing a two-stage fault and fold growth evolution, marked by a significant shift in the P/S parameter. At this site, exceptional sequence of exposures due to ca. 10 years of quarry excavations allowed to obtain a series of cross-sections across the fault zone. We use this detailed, high-resolution, example as a natural “analogue” for more general, large-scale surface ruptures involving a thick alluvial cover, a very common setting for the siting of critical facilities. During the early stage of displacement, the fault cut through clast-supported fluvial gravels with a high propagation rate (P/S = 7) and a discrete rupture width. Then, during the latest movements of the thrust, fault tip propagation slowed down to P/S ≈ 2.9, as the fault started cutting through several stacked bodies of clays and silty clays, pedogenized aeolian silts and overbank deposits, causing a pronounced folding of the layers over a wider deformation zone. These results strongly suggest that lithological changes in the underlying shallow stratigraphy, common in an alluvial plain depositional setting, would significantly affect the potential for surface faulting across the same tectonic structure, with relevant implications in the fault displacement hazard assessment.