Confirmatory multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging at recruitment confers prolonged stay in active surveillance and decreases the rate of upgrading at follow-up

Background: To understand the value of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) and targeted biopsies at recruitment on active surveillance (AS) outcomes. Materials and methods: This retrospective single-center study enrolled two cohorts of 206 and 310 patients in AS. The latter group was submitted to mpMRI and targeted biopsies at recruitment. Kaplan–meier curves quantified progression-free survival (PFS) and Bioptic-PFS (B-PFS: no upgrading or >3 positive cores) in the two cohorts. Cox-regression analyses tested independent predictors of PFS and B-PFS. In patients submitted to radical prostatectomy (RP) after AS, significant cancer (csPCa) was defined as: GS ≥ 4 + 3 and/or pT ≥ 3a and/or pN+. Logistic-regression analyses predicted csPCa at RP. Results and limitations: Median time follow-up and median time of persistence in AS were 46 (24–70) and 36 (23–58) months, respectively. Patients submitted to mpMRI at AS begin, showed greater PFS at 1- (98% vs. 91%), 3- (80% vs. 57%), and 5-years (70% vs. 35%) follow-up, respectively (all p < 0.01). At Cox-regression analysis only confirmatory mpMRI± targeted biopsy (HR: 0.3; 95% CI 0.2–0.5; p < 0.01) at AS begin was an independent predictor of PFS. Globally, 50 (16%) vs. 128 (62%) and 26 (8.5%) vs. 64 (31%) [all p < 0.01] men in the two groups experienced any-cause and bioptic AS discontinuation, respectively. Patients submitted to confirmatory mpMRI experienced greater 1-(98% vs. 93%), 3-(90% vs. 75%), and 5-years (83% vs. 56%) B-PFS, respectively (all p < 0.01). At Cox-regression analysis, mpMRI±-targeted biopsy at AS begin was associated with B-PFS (HR: 0.3; 95% CI 0.2–0.6; p < 0.01). No differences were recorded in csPCa rates between the two groups (22% vs. 28%; p = 0.47). Limitations of the study are the single-center retrospective nature and the absence of long-term follow-up. Conclusions: Confirmatory mpMRI±-targeted biopsies are associated with higher PFS and B-PFS during AS. However, a non-negligible percentage of patients experience csPCa after switching to active treatment.