We present a methodology to estimate cooling degree-days, heating degree-days and solar radiation records that are representative of the urbanised areas of the Italian territory. These records have recently been used within a model linking meteorological variables to the Italian aggregated electricity demand (Scapin et al., 2014): it allowed estimating the present-day dependence of the Italian electricity demand on cooling degree-days, heating degree-days and solar radiation. We used four RCM-GCM combinations to get the evolution of Italian cooling degree-days, heating degree-days and solar radiation under A1B climate change scenario. The results give evidence of an increase of cooling degree-days of about 130% and a decreasing of heating degree-days of about 35% across the XXIst century. The global effect is a positive forcing of the electricity demand due both to the stronger increase of CDD with respect to the HDD decrease and to the much higher impact of CDD on electricity demand.

A preliminary approach to estimate the impact of climate change on electricity demand in Italy / S. Scapin, F. Apadula, M. Brunetti, M. Maugeri - In: Climate change: scenarios, impacts and policyVenezia : Società Italiana per le Scienze del Clima, 2014. - ISBN 9788897666042. - pp. 977-990 (( Intervento presentato al 2. convegno Climate change: scenarios, impacts and policy tenutosi a Venezia nel 2014.

A preliminary approach to estimate the impact of climate change on electricity demand in Italy

S. Scapin;M. Maugeri
2014

Abstract

We present a methodology to estimate cooling degree-days, heating degree-days and solar radiation records that are representative of the urbanised areas of the Italian territory. These records have recently been used within a model linking meteorological variables to the Italian aggregated electricity demand (Scapin et al., 2014): it allowed estimating the present-day dependence of the Italian electricity demand on cooling degree-days, heating degree-days and solar radiation. We used four RCM-GCM combinations to get the evolution of Italian cooling degree-days, heating degree-days and solar radiation under A1B climate change scenario. The results give evidence of an increase of cooling degree-days of about 130% and a decreasing of heating degree-days of about 35% across the XXIst century. The global effect is a positive forcing of the electricity demand due both to the stronger increase of CDD with respect to the HDD decrease and to the much higher impact of CDD on electricity demand.
electricity demand; climate change; temperature; solar radiation
Settore FIS/06 - Fisica per il Sistema Terra e Il Mezzo Circumterrestre
http://www.sisclima.it/conferenza2014/proceedings-2014/
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/2434/624040
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