Objective: We built and externally validated a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) probability of advanced gastric cancer patients receiving second-line treatment. Methods: The nomogram was developed on a set of 320 Italian patients and validated on two independent sets (295 Italian and 172 Korean patients). Putative prognostic variables were selected using a random forest model and included in the multivariable Cox model. The nomogram's performance was evaluated by calibration plot and C index. Results: ECOG performance status, neutrophils to lymphocytes ratio, and peritoneal involvement were selected and included into the multivariable model. The C index was 0.72 (95% CI 0.68-0.75) in the development set, 0.69 (95% CI 0.65-0.73) in the Italian validation set, but only 0.57 (95% CI 0.52-0.62) in the Korean set. While Italian calibrations were quite good, the Korean one was poor. Regarding 6-month OS predictions, calibration was best in both Caucasian cohorts and worst the in Asian one. Conclusions: Our nomogram may be a useful tool to predict 3- or 6-month OS in Caucasian gastric cancer patients eligible for second-line therapy. Based on three easy-to-collect variables, the Gastric Life nomogram may help clinicians improve patient selection for second-line treatments and assist in clinical trial enrollment.
Estimating Survival Probabilities of Advanced Gastric Cancer Patients in the Second-Line Setting: The Gastric Life Nomogram / F. Pietrantonio, F. Barretta, V. Fanotto, S. Park, F. Morano, G. Fucà, M. Niger, M. Prisciandaro, N. Silvestris, F. Bergamo, L. Fornaro, R. Bordonaro, L. Rimassa, D. Santini, G. Tomasello, L. Antonuzzo, S. Noventa, A. Avallone, F. Leone, L. Faloppi, S. Di Donato, F. de Braud, J. Lee, F. De Vita, M. Di Bartolomeo, R. Miceli, G. Aprile. - In: ONCOLOGY. - ISSN 0030-2414. - 95:6(2018), pp. 344-352. [10.1159/000491753]
Estimating Survival Probabilities of Advanced Gastric Cancer Patients in the Second-Line Setting: The Gastric Life Nomogram
F. Pietrantonio
;G. Fucà;M. Prisciandaro;F. de Braud;
2018
Abstract
Objective: We built and externally validated a nomogram for predicting the overall survival (OS) probability of advanced gastric cancer patients receiving second-line treatment. Methods: The nomogram was developed on a set of 320 Italian patients and validated on two independent sets (295 Italian and 172 Korean patients). Putative prognostic variables were selected using a random forest model and included in the multivariable Cox model. The nomogram's performance was evaluated by calibration plot and C index. Results: ECOG performance status, neutrophils to lymphocytes ratio, and peritoneal involvement were selected and included into the multivariable model. The C index was 0.72 (95% CI 0.68-0.75) in the development set, 0.69 (95% CI 0.65-0.73) in the Italian validation set, but only 0.57 (95% CI 0.52-0.62) in the Korean set. While Italian calibrations were quite good, the Korean one was poor. Regarding 6-month OS predictions, calibration was best in both Caucasian cohorts and worst the in Asian one. Conclusions: Our nomogram may be a useful tool to predict 3- or 6-month OS in Caucasian gastric cancer patients eligible for second-line therapy. Based on three easy-to-collect variables, the Gastric Life nomogram may help clinicians improve patient selection for second-line treatments and assist in clinical trial enrollment.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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