Ukrainian Migratory Flows toward Europe and Russia since the Outbreak of the Geopolitical Crisis

The internal and international political crisis that exploded in 2014 has only slightly modified the foreign emigration of Ukrainians. The vast majority of refugees triggered by the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbass has remained in Ukraine, while the labor migration has significantly increased to Poland only. The main obstacles to the expansion of an Ukrainian immigration to Russia are the unsatisfactory conditions of reception of refugees, the severe economic crisis and recent restrictions on the immigration policy. In the EU, the high rate of rejection of applications for asylum, the economic crisis and the emergence of refugees from the Middle East and Africa are deterrents to an Ukrainian immigration. However, it is likely that the immigration to Russia will continue to decline at the benefit of the EU and some transoceanic countries, due to the growing unpopularity of the Russian Federation in the Ukrainian public opinion, and the characteristics of the Russian labor market will likely generate a shift of the Ukrainian emigrants to the West.