Every year the electoral outcomes are in many cases significantly different from those estimated by previous surveys. The most relevant reasons are linked to three peculiar elements: the floating social desiderability connected with the political offer; the increasing electoral volatility; the technique used to “correct” the unweighted results of the surveys. In the two last Italian elections, the prediction of the two stronger parties have been widely erroneous: Democrat Party (PD) and Five Stars Movement (M5s) were respectively over and under-estimated in the Parliamentary Election (2013) and, on the contrary, under and over-estimated in the following European Election (2014). The paper analyses the reasons of this failure, underlining the crucial role of the pollsters in their difficult effort to correct the raw data of the surveys, by means of the past trend linked to each political party.
Polls & pollsters : comportamenti elettorali e stime di voto / P. Natale. - In: STUDI DI SOCIOLOGIA. - ISSN 0039-291X. - 53:2(2015), pp. 145-154.
Polls & pollsters : comportamenti elettorali e stime di voto
P. NatalePrimo
2015
Abstract
Every year the electoral outcomes are in many cases significantly different from those estimated by previous surveys. The most relevant reasons are linked to three peculiar elements: the floating social desiderability connected with the political offer; the increasing electoral volatility; the technique used to “correct” the unweighted results of the surveys. In the two last Italian elections, the prediction of the two stronger parties have been widely erroneous: Democrat Party (PD) and Five Stars Movement (M5s) were respectively over and under-estimated in the Parliamentary Election (2013) and, on the contrary, under and over-estimated in the following European Election (2014). The paper analyses the reasons of this failure, underlining the crucial role of the pollsters in their difficult effort to correct the raw data of the surveys, by means of the past trend linked to each political party.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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