Every year the electoral outcomes are in many cases significantly different from those estimated by previous surveys. The most relevant reasons are linked to three peculiar elements: the floating social desiderability connected with the political offer; the increasing electoral volatility; the technique used to “correct” the unweighted results of the surveys. In the two last Italian elections, the prediction of the two stronger parties have been widely erroneous: Democrat Party (PD) and Five Stars Movement (M5s) were respectively over and under-estimated in the Parliamentary Election (2013) and, on the contrary, under and over-estimated in the following European Election (2014). The paper analyses the reasons of this failure, underlining the crucial role of the pollsters in their difficult effort to correct the raw data of the surveys, by means of the past trend linked to each political party.

Polls & pollsters : comportamenti elettorali e stime di voto / P. Natale. - In: STUDI DI SOCIOLOGIA. - ISSN 0039-291X. - 53:2(2015), pp. 145-154.

Polls & pollsters : comportamenti elettorali e stime di voto

P. Natale
Primo
2015

Abstract

Every year the electoral outcomes are in many cases significantly different from those estimated by previous surveys. The most relevant reasons are linked to three peculiar elements: the floating social desiderability connected with the political offer; the increasing electoral volatility; the technique used to “correct” the unweighted results of the surveys. In the two last Italian elections, the prediction of the two stronger parties have been widely erroneous: Democrat Party (PD) and Five Stars Movement (M5s) were respectively over and under-estimated in the Parliamentary Election (2013) and, on the contrary, under and over-estimated in the following European Election (2014). The paper analyses the reasons of this failure, underlining the crucial role of the pollsters in their difficult effort to correct the raw data of the surveys, by means of the past trend linked to each political party.
Italian Parliamentary Election; Voting Estimation; Electoral Behaviour; Survey
Settore SPS/04 - Scienza Politica
2015
Article (author)
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
StudiSociologia_PaoloNatale.pdf

accesso riservato

Tipologia: Post-print, accepted manuscript ecc. (versione accettata dall'editore)
Dimensione 318.96 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
318.96 kB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia
Pubblicazioni consigliate

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2434/479030
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus ND
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? ND
social impact