Splitting with confidence in decision trees with application to stream mining

Decision tree classifiers are a widely used tool in data stream mining. The use of confidence intervals to estimate the gain associated with each split leads to very effective methods, like the popular Hoeffding tree algorithm. From a statistical viewpoint, the analysis of decision tree classifiers in a streaming setting requires knowing when enough new information has been collected to justify splitting a leaf. Although some of the issues in the statistical analysis of Hoeffding trees have been already clarified, a general and rigorous study of confidence intervals for splitting criteria is missing. We fill this gap by deriving accurate confidence intervals to estimate the splitting gain in decision tree learning with respect to three criteria: entropy, Gini index, and a third index proposed by Kearns and Mansour. Our confidence intervals depend in a more detailed way on the tree parameters. Experiments on real and synthetic data in a streaming setting show that our trees are indeed more accurate than trees with the same number of leaves generated by other techniques.