Are the World Junior Championship Finalists for Middle and Long-Distance Events Currently Competing at International Level?

Purpose: The aim of the present study was to analyze how many finalists of the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) World Junior Championships (WJC) in the middle and long-distance track events had dropped out from high-level competitions. Methods: Starting from 2002, the eight male and the eight female finalists in the middle and long-distance events of six editions of the WJC were followed until 2015 to evaluate how many athletes missed from the IAAF rankings for two consecutive years starting from the year after WJC participation. For those still competing at elite level, their careers were monitored. Results: In 2015, 61% of the 2002, 54.8% of the 2004, 48.3% of the 2006, 37.5% of the 2008, 26.2% of the 2010 and 29% of the 2012 WJC finalists were not present in the IAAF rankings. Of the 368 athletes considered, 75 (20.4%) were able to achieve the IAAF Top ten in 2.4 ± 2.2 years. There is evidence of relationship between dropout and gender (P = 0.040), WJC edition (P = 0.000), and nationality (P = 0.010); and between the possibility to achieve the IAAF Top ten and dropout (P = 0.000), continent (P = 0.001), relative age effect (P = 0.000), and quartile of birth (P = 0.050). Conclusion: Even if 23 of the finalists won a medal at the Olympic Games or at the World Championships, it is still not clear if participation at the WJC is a prerequisite to success at a senior level.