Does the Ichnogis method work? A test of prediction performance in a microtidal environment

The purpose of the present study is to evaluate the performance of the IchnoGIS method, which is a high-resolution framework to capture, manage, analyse and display geographically referenced ichnological data. By surveying neoichnological, sedimentological and environmental variables, the IchnoGIS method allows users to identify the environmental factors controlling the distribution of modern ichnoassociations. If the IchnoGIS method holds what it promises, then it should be possible to predict environmental parameters directly from ichnoassociations. Based on this hypothesis, the prediction performance of an ichnological model derived from the IchnoGIS method (Grado Model) was tested against a real-world situation: the Banco della Mula di Muggia (Northern Adriatic, Italy). The study site is a shallow-water microtidal system consisting of a sheltered zone protected by elongated sand ridges (bars, barrier islands). The performance test proceeded by first assessing the potential distribution of environmental parameters on the basis of both the ichnoassociations and the Grado model. Thereafter, the performance of the model was evaluated successively from its success at predicting environmental parameters. The results of the performance test show that the model is able to predict modern environmental parameters from neoichnological data. It is suggested that the IchnoGIS method may have great potential for the interpretation of ancient sedimentary sequences.