Dating the origin and dispersal of human papillomavirus type 16 on the basis of ancestral human migrations

A major limitation when reconstructing the origin and evolution of HPV-16 is the lack of reliable substitution rate estimates for the viral genes. On the basis of the hypothesis of human HPV-16 co-divergence, we estimated a mean evolutionary rate of 1.47×10(-7) (95% HPD=0.64-2.47×10(-7)) subs/site/year for the viral LCR region. The results of a Bayesian phylogeographical analysis suggest that the currently circulating HPV-16 most probably originated in Africa about 110 thousand years ago (Kya), before giving rise to four known geographical lineages: the Asian/European lineage, which most probably originated in Asia a mean 38Kya, and the Asian/American and two African lineages, which probably respectively originated about 33 and 27Kya. These data closely reflect current hypotheses concerning modern human expansion based on studies of mitochondrial DNA phylogeny. The correlation between ancient human migration and the present HPV phylogeny may be explained by the co-existence of modes of transmission other than sexual transmission.