Second-order uncertainty, also known as model uncertainty and Knightian uncertainty, arises when decision-makers can (partly) model the parameters of their decision problems. It is widely believed that subjective probability, and more generally Bayesian theory, are ill-suited to represent a number of interesting second-order uncertainty features, especially “ignorance” and “ambiguity”. This failure is sometimes taken as an argument for the rejection of the whole Bayesian approach, triggering a Bayes vs anti-Bayes debate which is in many ways analogous to what the classical vs non-classical debate used to be in logic. This pa- per attempts to unfold this analogy and suggests that the development of non-standard logics offers very useful lessons on the contextualisa- tion of justified norms of rationality. By putting those lessons to work I will flesh out an epistemological framework suitable for extending the expressive power of standard Bayesian norms of rationality to second- order uncertainty in a way which is both formally and foundationally conservative.
Towards a Bayesian theory of second-order uncertainty : lessons from non- standard logics / H. Hosni - In: David Makinson on Classical Methods for Non-Classical Problems / [a cura di] S.O. Hansson. - New York : Springer, 2014. - ISBN 978-94-007-7758-3. - pp. 195-221
Titolo: | Towards a Bayesian theory of second-order uncertainty : lessons from non- standard logics | |
Autori: | HOSNI, HYKEL (Primo) | |
Parole Chiave: | Second-order uncertainty; Bayesian epistemology; Admissibility; Imprecise probabilities | |
Settore Scientifico Disciplinare: | Settore M-FIL/02 - Logica e Filosofia della Scienza | |
Data di pubblicazione: | 2014 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI): | http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7759-0_11 | |
Tipologia: | Book Part (author) | |
Appare nelle tipologie: | 03 - Contributo in volume |
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