We analyze century-long daily temperature and precipitation records for stations in Europe west of 60 degrees E. A set of climatic indices derived from the daily series, mainly focusing on extremes, is defined. Linear trends in these indices are assessed over the period 1901-2000. Average trends, for 75 stations mostly representing Europe west of 20 degrees E, show a warming for all temperature indices. Winter has, on average, warmed more (similar to 1.0 degrees C/100 yr) than summer (similar to 0.8 degrees C), both for daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures. Overall, the warming of TX in winter was stronger in the warm tail than in the cold tail (1.6 and 1.5 degrees C for 98th and 95th, but similar to 1.0 degrees C for 2nd, 5th and 10th percentiles). There are, however, large regional differences in temperature trend patterns. For summer, there is a tendency for stronger warming, both for TX and TN, in the warm than in the cold tail only in parts of central Europe. Winter precipitation totals, averaged over 121 European stations north of 40 degrees N, have increased significantly by similar to 12% per 100 years. Trends in 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles of daily winter precipitation have been similar. No overall long-term trend occurred in summer precipitation totals, but there is an overall weak (statistically insignificant and regionally dependent) tendency for summer precipitation to have become slightly more intense but less common. Data inhomogeneities and relative sparseness of station density in many parts of Europe preclude more robust conclusions. It is of importance that new methods are developed for homogenizing daily data.
Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for the period 1901-2000 / A. Moberg, P.D. Jones, D. Lister, A. Walther, M. Brunet, J. Jacobeit, L.V. Alexander, P.M. Della-Marta, J. Luterbacher, P. Yiou, D.L. Chen, A.M.G.K. Tank, O. Saladie, J. Sigro, E. Aguilar, H. Alexandersson, C. Almarza, I. Auer, M. Barriendos, M. Begert, H. Bergstrom, R. Bohm, C.J. Butler, J. Caesar, A. Drebs, D. Founda, F.W. Gerstengarbe, G. Micela, M. Maugeri, H. Osterle, K. Pandzic, M. Petrakis, L. Srnec, R. Tolasz, H. Tuomenvirta, P.C. Werner, H. Linderholm, A. Philipp, H. Wanner, E. Xoplaki. - In: JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH: SPACE PHYSICS. - ISSN 0148-0227. - 111:D22(2006), pp. D22106.D22106-1-D22106.D22106-25. [10.1029/2006JD007103]
Indices for daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe analyzed for the period 1901-2000
M. Maugeri;
2006
Abstract
We analyze century-long daily temperature and precipitation records for stations in Europe west of 60 degrees E. A set of climatic indices derived from the daily series, mainly focusing on extremes, is defined. Linear trends in these indices are assessed over the period 1901-2000. Average trends, for 75 stations mostly representing Europe west of 20 degrees E, show a warming for all temperature indices. Winter has, on average, warmed more (similar to 1.0 degrees C/100 yr) than summer (similar to 0.8 degrees C), both for daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures. Overall, the warming of TX in winter was stronger in the warm tail than in the cold tail (1.6 and 1.5 degrees C for 98th and 95th, but similar to 1.0 degrees C for 2nd, 5th and 10th percentiles). There are, however, large regional differences in temperature trend patterns. For summer, there is a tendency for stronger warming, both for TX and TN, in the warm than in the cold tail only in parts of central Europe. Winter precipitation totals, averaged over 121 European stations north of 40 degrees N, have increased significantly by similar to 12% per 100 years. Trends in 90th, 95th and 98th percentiles of daily winter precipitation have been similar. No overall long-term trend occurred in summer precipitation totals, but there is an overall weak (statistically insignificant and regionally dependent) tendency for summer precipitation to have become slightly more intense but less common. Data inhomogeneities and relative sparseness of station density in many parts of Europe preclude more robust conclusions. It is of importance that new methods are developed for homogenizing daily data.
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