The paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting of a stochastic method and CGE model. The former, related to the Monte Carlo analysis, provides the likely changes in rainfall patterns and their probability of occurrence based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the scenarios simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the greater negative effect on the poorest households; and a deterioration of the economic performance of the country. In this context, the paper stresses a strong interconnection among climate change and variability, poverty and food insecurity and thus the need for an integrated policy-making approach.

Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan : stochastic approach and CGE model / M. Sassi, A. Cardaci. - In: FOOD POLICY. - ISSN 0306-9192. - 43(2013 Dec), pp. 321-331. [10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.06.002]

Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan : stochastic approach and CGE model

A. Cardaci
Ultimo
2013

Abstract

The paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting of a stochastic method and CGE model. The former, related to the Monte Carlo analysis, provides the likely changes in rainfall patterns and their probability of occurrence based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the scenarios simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the greater negative effect on the poorest households; and a deterioration of the economic performance of the country. In this context, the paper stresses a strong interconnection among climate change and variability, poverty and food insecurity and thus the need for an integrated policy-making approach.
CGE; Food security; Rainfall patterns; Stochastic approach; Sudan; Food Science; Economics and Econometrics; Development3304 Education; Sociology and Political Science; Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Settore AGR/01 - Economia ed Estimo Rurale
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2434/251101
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