Dropout rate of the finalists of the IAAF world Junior Championship : analysis of the middle-long distance events

Aim: Previous studies (Piacentini et al., 2014) showed that success at a young age for throwers is not a springboard for later success. Aim of this study was to analyze the career (based on the IAAF rankings) and/or dropout rate (intended as absence from the IAAF rankings by December 2013) of the 8 finalists in the middle-long distance events of 5 IAAF World Junior Championships (WJC). Methods: The results of the 8 male and the 8 female finalists of the last 5 editions of the WJC from the 2002 edition were gathered. In particular we focused on the female 3000m, male and female 5000m and male 10000m events and analysed how many athletes were missing from the IAAF ranking in 2013. For those athletes that did not dropout we monitored their progression in performance comparing their WJC and their 2013 performance. Data were retrieved from website www.iaaf.org. Descriptive statistic was used for dropout data. Results: For the WJC of Kingston 2002 (JAM) the dropout rate was 50% divided in 50% for female 3.000m, 62.5% for male 5.000m, 37.5% for female 5.000m and 50% for male 10.000m. For the WJC of Grosseto 2004 (ITA) the dropout rate was 46.9% divided in 50% for female 3.000m, 37% for male 5.000m, 62.5% for female 5.000m and 37% for male 10.000m. For the WJC of Beijing 2006 (CHN) the dropout rate was 37.5%% divided in 50% for female 3.000m, 25% for male 5.000m, 37.5% for female 5.000m and 37.5% for male 10.000m. For the WJC of Bydgoszcz 2008 (POL) the dropout rate was 37.5% divided in 62.5% for female 3.000m, 12.5% for male 5.000m, 37.5% for female 5.000m and 37.5% for male 10.000m. For the WJC of Moncton 2010 (CAN) the dropout rate was 18.8% divided in 25% for female 3.000m, 0% for male 5.000m, 25% for female 5.000m and 25% for male 10.000m. Conclusion: Confirming previous studies (Piacentini et al., 2014), the present data show a higher dropout rate in female respect to male athletes. In particular, although 11 out 64 of the finalists (6 female and 4 male) won a medal at the Olympic Games or at the World Championships, it is still not clear if participation at the WJC is a prerequisite to success at a senior level, given the elevated dropout rate observed in the present study. References Piacentini et al. J Sports Med Phys Fitness 2014;54:1-2.