Understanding Etna flank instability through numerical models

Shallow and deep deformations, mainly associated with both eruptive and seismic events, are concentrated along recognised fracture and fault systems, mobilising the eastern and south-eastern flank of the volcano. Several interacting causes were postulated to control the phenomenon, including gravity force, magma ascent along the feeding system, and a very complex local and/or regional tectonic activity. Nevertheless, the complexity of such dynamics is still an open subject of research and being the volcano flanks heavily urbanised, the comprehension of the gravitative dynamics is a major issue for public safety and civil protection. The present research explores the effects of the main geological features (in particular the role of the subetnean clays, interposed between the Apennine–Maghrebian flysch and the volcanic products) and the role of weakness zones, identified by fracture and fault systems, on the slope instability process. The effects of magma intrusions are also investigated. The problem is addressed by integrating field data, laboratory tests and numerical modelling. A bi- and tri-dimensional stress–strain analysis was performed by a finite difference numerical code (FLAC and FLAC3D), mainly aimed at evaluating the relationship among geological features, volcano-tectonic structures and magmatic activity in controlling the deformation processes. The analyses are well supported by dedicated structural–mechanical field surveys, which allowed to estimate the rock mass strength and deformability parameters. To take into account the uncertainties which inevitably occur in a so complicated model, many efforts were done in performing a sensitivity analysis along a WNW–ESE section crossing the volcano summit and the Valle del Bove depression. This was mainly devoted to evaluate the effect of topography, geometry and rheological behaviour of the structural units. The 3D numerical model, extended 40 × 60 km, was implemented to simulate the volcano deformation pattern. First, the role of the Pleistocene subetnean clays was investigated, then, two “structural weakness zones” – the Pernicana Fault system and the NE rift – were introduced and their effects on the flank instability evaluated. Two extreme hydrogeological conditions, drained and undrained, were analysed. The results are expressed in terms of stress–strain field, displacement pattern, plasticity states and shear strain increments. Two main instability mechanisms were identified: one at shallow depth, with the sliding surface located inside the subetnean Quaternary clay, and another deep-seated mechanism with a not continuous and less evident sliding surface, developed inside the Apennine–Maghrebian Chain flysch, bordered by active structures. Both mechanisms contribute to explain the present deformation pattern and some of the main structures of the Etna flank. The effect of magma pressure exerted on the active dyke walls during eruptions was then simulated and relations between magmatic activity and flank instability were preliminarily investigated.