Missing Data Imputation in Longitudinal Cohort Studies: Application of PLANN-ARD in Breast Cancer Survival

Missing values are common in medical datasets and may be amenable to data imputation when modelling a given data set or validating on an external cohort. This paper discusses model averaging over samples of the imputed distribution and extends this approach to generic non-linear modelling with the Partial Logistic Artificial Neural Network (PLANN) regularised within the evidence-based framework with Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD), The study then applies the imputation to external validation over new patient cohorts, considering also the case of predictions made for individual patients. A prognostic index is defined for the non-linear model and validation results show that 4 statistically significant risk groups identified at the 95% level of confidence from the modelling data, from Christie Hospital (n=931), retain good separation during external validation with data from the British Columbia Cancer Agency (n=4, 083).