The social bases to nuclear energy policies in Europe : priors, proximity, belief updating and attitudes to risk

This article analyzes the social bases than underpin the widely different trajectories of nuclear energy policies across European countries. Employing a set of surveys carried out in the last forty years, I examine the conditional effects of ideological priors and proximity to a nuclear power plant on public attitudes toward nuclear energy, as well as the long- and short-term dynamics of belief updating after the occurrence of major accidents. Results highlight how proximity can strengthen, weaken or have no effect on the ideological component of these attitudes. Moreover, the publics of most countries with an experience in nuclear energy display the traits of a Bayesian dynamics of belief updating, especially in the vicinity of a plant. I also show the fairly exceptional traits of French public opinion.