The El Niño phenomenon is the Earth's strongest climatic fluctuation on an interannual timescale and has a quasi-global impact, although originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean. A very strong El Niño is recognized to cause extreme dryness and wetness in different parts of the world. We show that all the eight well-documented influenza pandemics, starting from the first certain one documented in ad 1580, originated in China and in Russia, a few years after the occurrence of a very strong or after a prolonged strong/moderate El Niño event. At present, the next El Niño will probably occur at the beginning of 2013 (Mazzarella et al. Theor Appl Climatol 100:23-27, 2010), and this forecast may suggest to be well prepared to take appropriate precautionary epidemiological measures.

Hypothesis on a possible role of El Niño in the occurrence of influenza pandemics / A. Mazzarella, A. Giuliacci, F.E. Pregliasco. - In: THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY. - ISSN 0177-798X. - 105:1/2(2011 Aug), pp. 65-69.

Hypothesis on a possible role of El Niño in the occurrence of influenza pandemics

F.E. Pregliasco
Ultimo
2011

Abstract

The El Niño phenomenon is the Earth's strongest climatic fluctuation on an interannual timescale and has a quasi-global impact, although originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean. A very strong El Niño is recognized to cause extreme dryness and wetness in different parts of the world. We show that all the eight well-documented influenza pandemics, starting from the first certain one documented in ad 1580, originated in China and in Russia, a few years after the occurrence of a very strong or after a prolonged strong/moderate El Niño event. At present, the next El Niño will probably occur at the beginning of 2013 (Mazzarella et al. Theor Appl Climatol 100:23-27, 2010), and this forecast may suggest to be well prepared to take appropriate precautionary epidemiological measures.
influenza; influenza pandemic; strength index; multivariate ENSO index; influenza virus subtype
Settore MED/42 - Igiene Generale e Applicata
ago-2011
Article (author)
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/2434/170663
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