The evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet for the last 200,000 years is simulated with a finite difference thermomechanical model based on the shallow ice approximation. The model depends on the surface temperature, the ice accumulation rate, the geothermal heat flux and the basal sliding coefficient, which are estimated with large uncertainty. A second-order approximation of the model in a neighborhood of the reference values for these parameters permits the computation of both local and variance-based sensitivity indices. The results show the dominant effect of the surface temperature on the model predictions.

A sensitivity analysis for an evolution model of the Antarctic ice sheet / F. Baratelli, M. Giudici, C. Vassena. - In: RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY. - ISSN 0951-8320. - 107(2012 Nov), pp. 64-70.

A sensitivity analysis for an evolution model of the Antarctic ice sheet

F. Baratelli
Primo
;
M. Giudici
Secondo
;
C. Vassena
Ultimo
2012-11

Abstract

The evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet for the last 200,000 years is simulated with a finite difference thermomechanical model based on the shallow ice approximation. The model depends on the surface temperature, the ice accumulation rate, the geothermal heat flux and the basal sliding coefficient, which are estimated with large uncertainty. A second-order approximation of the model in a neighborhood of the reference values for these parameters permits the computation of both local and variance-based sensitivity indices. The results show the dominant effect of the surface temperature on the model predictions.
Antarctic ice sheet; First-order sensitivity index; Glaciology; Normalized sensitivity; Prediction scaled sensitivity; Thermomechanical modelling
Settore GEO/12 - Oceanografia e Fisica dell'Atmosfera
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/2434/166184
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