In this paper a method for estimating and forecasting the demand of ambulance service in the area of Milano is presented. We assume that time and location of an emergency service request are outcomes of a space-time marked point process. Thus we estimate the intensity of the process on the basis of the records of specific emergency call history over 3 years (2005- 2007). The mean number of emergencies occurring daily is also related, via a linear regression model, to some exogenous variables, which can be measured and used for the forecasting procedure. Simulation results based on such estimates and real data observed during 2008 are presented.

A stochastic model for simulation and forecasting of emergencies in the area of Milano / A. Micheletti, D. Morale, D. Rapati, P. Nolli - In: 2010 IEEE Workshop on Health Care Management[s.l] : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc., 2010. - ISBN 978-1-4244-4998-9. (( convegno IEEE Workshop on Health Care Management (WHCM) tenutosi a Venezia nel 2010.

A stochastic model for simulation and forecasting of emergencies in the area of Milano

A. Micheletti
Primo
;
D. Morale
Secondo
;
2010

Abstract

In this paper a method for estimating and forecasting the demand of ambulance service in the area of Milano is presented. We assume that time and location of an emergency service request are outcomes of a space-time marked point process. Thus we estimate the intensity of the process on the basis of the records of specific emergency call history over 3 years (2005- 2007). The mean number of emergencies occurring daily is also related, via a linear regression model, to some exogenous variables, which can be measured and used for the forecasting procedure. Simulation results based on such estimates and real data observed during 2008 are presented.
space-time stochastic processes ; point processes ; stochastic simulation
Settore MAT/06 - Probabilita' e Statistica Matematica
Technical Committee on Discrete Event Systems of the SMC Society
IEEE Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society
IEEE Robotics and Automation Society
IEEE Italy Section
Book Part (author)
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/2434/145451
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