In this paper we propose a model for the dynamics of inflation in Italy. It is shown that both in the short and long run the inflation patterns cannot be explained by a single cause. Changes in monetary and credit markets, and in many sectors of the Italian economy suggest to split the sample period into two sub-samples and modelling inflation differently for each of the periods. Moreover, a robustness analysis rejects the hypothesis of a structural break associated with the institutional changes occurred in 1999, with the adhesion to the EMU and the adoption of the euro.
Modelling Italian inflation : 1970-2006 / E. Bacchiocchi. - In: RIVISTA DI POLITICA ECONOMICA. - ISSN 0035-6468. - 99:1/3(2009), pp. 65-110.
Modelling Italian inflation : 1970-2006
E. BacchiocchiPrimo
2009
Abstract
In this paper we propose a model for the dynamics of inflation in Italy. It is shown that both in the short and long run the inflation patterns cannot be explained by a single cause. Changes in monetary and credit markets, and in many sectors of the Italian economy suggest to split the sample period into two sub-samples and modelling inflation differently for each of the periods. Moreover, a robustness analysis rejects the hypothesis of a structural break associated with the institutional changes occurred in 1999, with the adhesion to the EMU and the adoption of the euro.
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