Crowding (at) the margins: investigating the unequal distribution of housing space in Germany

Contemporary public housing debates generally focus on affordability, while overlooking inequalities in housing quality, such as living space. Using longitudinal survey data from Germany (1985–2022), a country with tenant majority, this study examines household overcrowding and underoccupation. We find that the risk of overcrowding (currently 11%) is highly uneven, driven primarily by sociodemographic factors—such as having children, migration background, marital status, and education—rather than income. Families with children, low-skilled individuals and migrants are most vulnerable, whereas high-skilled, childless, native-born individuals face a relatively low risk. Underoccupation, which affects up to 39% of households, is similarly shaped by sociodemographic factors as well as homeownership. Our longitudinal analysis further shows that life-course events, including childbirth and changes in marital status, play a key role in transitions into both overcrowded and underoccupied conditions. We also document a substantial gap between objective and subjective measures of living space, highlighting widespread misperceptions. Our findings have clear policy implications. Policies should target high-risk groups to reduce overcrowding and leverage underoccupation to improve housing efficiency through downsizing incentives, intergenerational housing, or underoccupancy taxes, complemented by awareness campaigns.