Do migrants fare better than non-movers? A quasi-experimental comparison of Poles and Romanians in Italy and the UK

Most studies on immigrant integration compare migrants to natives, overlooking whether migration improves outcomes relative to staying in the origin country. This study adopts a single-origin–multiple-destination design to evaluate whether Polish and Romanian migrants in Italy and the UK gain employment and occupational advantages over their non-migrant peers. Using harmonised Labour Force Survey data and Coarsened Exact Matching, the analysis estimates the effect of migration while controlling for self-selection. Results show that migration generally enhances employment prospects. However, it also increases the risk of low-skilled employment. Outcomes vary significantly by gender, education, and destination: male and less educated migrants enjoy greater employment benefits and face smaller occupational penalties than female and highly educated migrants. Migrants in the UK have higher employment chances but greater exposure to unskilled jobs than those in Italy. Thus, individual characteristics and destination-country contexts jointly shape migrants’ labour market outcomes, even when controlling for selectivity.