Temperature Sensitivity and Adaptation of Cereal Yields: Empirical Evidence From Italy

This paper investigates the evolving temperature sensitivity and climate adaptation of cereal yields in Italy from 1952 to 2023, using province-level data for maize, common wheat, and durum wheat. Employing panel data econometric methods, we estimate yield responses to heat exposure, changes in sensitivity over time, and adaptation to climate change. The findings reveal reduced heat sensitivity in maize, persistent sensitivity in common wheat, and some evidence of reduced heat sensitivity in durum wheat. The results also highlight mixed evidence of adaptation, as long-run climate adaptation offsets some of the negative effects only on maize yield. Consequently, there is both potential for reducing heat impacts and concern about future vulnerability. This study provides novel evidence regarding the necessity of targeted agricultural strategies in enhancing climate resilience among cereal producers.