Italy’s bilateral agreements with sub-Saharan countries: A quantitative exploration of intensity, timing and drivers

Italy has recently stepped up attention to Africa, but the Africa policy of this European middle power has rarely been the object of analysis. This article examines the rationale of some 700 bilateral agreements Rome signed with sub-Saharan countries between 1960 and 2022. It offers the first quantitative investigation of Italy’s diplomacy with African states, using an original dataset and a statistical testing of potential drivers. Findings contribute to the literature on middle powers’ foreign policies by showing that economic and development priorities have been Italy’s major drivers. These dynamics were also shaped by the independence timing of African partners and by the distribution of Italian embassies, while institutional and political factors influenced the intensity of the diplomatic activity but not its timing.